Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support
Moron Meet-Ups
MI/Midwest Meet-up:
10/5-10/6/2018

It has a website!

SoCal Meet-up: 8/25/2018 In Irvine CA
Contact Jim

NY/NJ MoMe: 8/23/2018, 6pm-9pm in Hoboken
Contact CBD

Central NJ MoMe: 10/13/2018: Hillsborough-Somerset County
Contact fenelonspoke

SW Ohio MoMe: 10/20/2018, 7-10pm in Dayton OH
Contact ibguy

Texas MoMe: 10/20/18
Contact Ben Had
Sarah on CNN: UPDATED | Main | McCain's "I am Joe the Plumber" Ad
October 22, 2008

Are the Polls Accurate?

Michael Barone says sorta:

First, the exit polls in the recent presidential elections have tended to show the Democrats doing better than they actually did, partly because of interviewer error. The late Warren Mitofsky, in his study of the 2004 exit poll, found that the largest errors came in precincts where the interviewers were female graduate students.

Second, the exit polls in almost all the primaries this year showed Mr. Obama doing better than he actually did. The same respondent bias -- the greater willingness of Obama voters to be polled -- which apparently occurred on primary days could also occur in the exit poll on Election Day, and in the phone polls of early and absentee voters that Edison/Mitofsky will conduct to supplement it.

In the 2006 cycle, Democrats won the aggregate House vote by 7.9%. But the polls through October and November showed them with a 14.2% lead.

A few of the latest polls from that cycle:

FOX News 11/04 - 11/05, Democrats +13
CNN 11/03 - 11/05, Democrats +20
USA Today/Gallup 11/02 - 11/05, Democrats +7
ABC News/Wash Post 11/01 - 11/04, Democrats +6
Pew Research 11/01 - 11/04, Democrats +4
Newsweek 11/02 - 11/03, Democrats +16
Time 11/01 - 11/03, Democrats +15
CBS News/NY Times 10/27 - 10/31, Democrats +18
NBC/WSJ 10/28 - 10/30, Democrats +15

Note that only two of the polls were even close. Most showed an enormous overstatement of Democratic support. As in, double.

"Crush their Spirits:" Geraghty's "Obi-Wan:"

Why are they angry? Because their whole strategy relies on a demoralized GOP. Remember the scare they had in September?" Obi-Wan asked. "All that coronation stuff at the Democratic convention dissolved as McCain seized and held a good lead. They know how fragile things are. They need to keep the media talking about a massive GOP defeat, because all it might take is a few stories to the contrary and all of a sudden, it is mid-September again, when the rising McCain tide was lifting all boats.

Thanks to Slublog.

On the Other Hand... Has Murtha slipped to 50% and falling?

That's what internal polls say, Bill Russel's camp claims. Given Murtha's latest outbursts, I find it pretty plausible.

All Over the Place: McCain nets two in Gallup. They still show him behind 5-8 with likelies. Sort of right in that range of typical overstatement of Democratic support.


digg this
posted by Ace at 12:52 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Burnt Toast: "386 >>So you're saying - War with Spain until they ..."

ALH: "418 Eff the Miami Marlins. Posted by: your neighb ..."

Braenyard: "OK, I'll pay $19.95 for a 't'. ..."

your neighbor with a telescope: "Eff the Miami Marlins. ..."

TheQuietMan: " They have to take back Brazil and Angola Posted ..."

Surfperch: "Diez minutos, Senora. Posted by: Surfperch at Au ..."

ALH: "Diez minutos, Senora. Posted by: Surfperch at Aug ..."

Surfperch: "Quando es el ONT? Posted by: ALH at August 15, 20 ..."

Braenyard: "Quando es el ONT? Posted by: ALH at August 15, ..."

ALH: "Quando es el ONT? ..."

andycanuck: "Sean Davis has an excellent timeline of the leaked ..."

Calm Mentor: "Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) introduced the Acc ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64