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September 08, 2008

Washington Post/ABCNews Poll: McCain Vaults From 19 Point Deficit in Battleground Midwest to Plus Seven Advantage

The PDF. (Lifted off Real Clear Politics.) Ninja'd! Even as I was writing this, the WaPo sent me the link to their web article. Probably easier to click on that, but my quotes are from the PDF.

Another huge shift (or, actually, the huge shift driving most of that headlined huge shift): Age-Old Racial Fears Stirred as McCain/Palin Begins Stealing Everyone's White Women Away.

John McCain’s taken the better boost from the presidential nominating onventions, eroding Barack Obama’s advantage on change, improving on enthusiasm, moving away from George W. Bush – and advancing among white women with help from his surprise vice presidential pick.

Some of McCain’s biggest gains in this ABC News/Washington Post poll are among white women, a group to which “hockey mom” Sarah Palin has notable appeal: Sixty seven percent view her favorably and 58 percent say her selection makes them more confident in McCain’s decision-making. Among those with children, Palin does better yet. And enthusiasm for McCain among his female supporters has soared.

White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama’s favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that’s one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences.

Overall, WaPo/ABC puts it at McCain/Palin at +2, 49-47 among likelies. Among registered voters, Obama has a 47-46 edge; neither is significant. But McCain got a 4-point bounce.

Obama, for his part, shows little or no progress on his chief challenges – the question of his experience, the definition of the change he’d bring about and his efforts to entice former Hillary Clinton supporters aboard. Obama continues to lead McCain by a wide margin in enthusiasm, but his advantage on some key issues has softened.

Notably, far more people see Obama than McCain as in tune with the economic problems Americans are experiencing – but in trust to handle the economy the gap between the two has narrowed to a slim 5-point Obama advantage. That speaks to McCain’s advantage on experience, expressed, for example, in his 17-point margin in trust to handle a crisis.

California Dreaming: Anyone watching FoxNews knows McCain is opening campaign offices in California and is considering -- or at least pretending to consider -- making a major play for California.

Currently they're down 12.

More: From the article now:

McCain has a 17-point lead on which candidate can best handle an unexpected crisis and, for the first time, a double-digit advantage as the one more trusted on international affairs. McCain also has a 10-point lead on dealing with the war in Iraq, an issue that voters had been divided on since the outset of the campaign.

And on the dominant issue of the election, the economy, McCain has whittled Obama's advantage to a mere five points, the smallest it's been this year. McCain has also drawn even with Obama on energy policy and has sharply narrowed Obama's lead on dealing with the federal deficit and handling social issues such as abortion and gay civil unions. He's also turned around what had been a narrow Obama edge on being seen as the "stronger leader." The candidates remain rated roughly evenly on taxes, while McCain continues to hold a huge lead on the question of who would make a better commander in chief.

In addition, Obama still leads on the change question, but McCain/Palin have narrowed that considerably.

Those who are "very enthusiastic" for the ticket have doubled. (The power of The Two.)

Again, the bulk of this is due to a massive shift in opinions of white women, or as the MSM now knows them, "incorrigible racist bitches and ungrateful painted street-whores who ought to stay in the kitchen and out of the voting booth."

The Eagleton Scenario: Just mentioning it. It was all the rage a week ago. Gun to my head, I'd say it's still a 50/50 proposition.

I mean, this woman is just embarrassing the ticket. The only real question is whether it would be more embarrassing for McCain to dump this non-performing candidate.

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posted by Ace at 05:36 PM

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