Hugh Hewitt: You know who's racking up delegates?

John McCain.

You know who that benefits?

Mitt Romney.

I'm sorry, morons. I just can't help myself. This joke has completely taken over my life.

Last night, for example, I'm out having pizza and beer with some folks. When the waitress stopped at the table I told her "You know who wants a bucket of beer? Me. You know who that benefits? The unattractive gals at the bar."

Anyway, here is how the only trusted political analyst on the intertubes sees it:

Let's look at the worst case for Romney on Super Tuesday.

Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)

Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.

Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 126.

Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.

States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:

California 173
Georgia 72
Illinois 70
Tennessee 55
Alabama 48
Colorado 46
Massachusetts 41
Minnesota 40
Oklahoma 41
West Virginia 30
Alaska 29
North Dakota 26

Total 671

If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.

Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:

McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.

It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.

Hope springs eternal at Townhall.com, folks.

If I were a better poet I might write something like "rage, rage against the dying of the light".

But since I'm not, I'll just stick with the "who does that benefit" jokes.

posted by Jack M. at 04:11 PM

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