NYT Editorial: Bush Went To Iraq To Distract From... Iraq | Main | Gaia is Winning Converts in Unlikely Places
September 05, 2007

Kinda Interesting: Third Down Performance An Inverse Indicator of Teams' Performance Following Season
Plus: New Pool, That Works!

I'm just skimming, but it appears that if a team does poorly on third downs (on offense or defense) it's likely they'll rebound the next season, and if they do well on third downs, they'll decline.

Why? I think the idea is that third downs are both volatile and often very important, so pure luck plays a role in a team's third-down performance. If they did poorly on third down, it's not so much they're bad or specifically bad on third downs as they got unlucky throughout the season, costing them a few games along the way. Their previous record thus understates their actual strength.

Meanwhile, an above-average performance on third down indicates the opposite -- they won a few games by the luck of the breaks and their past record thus overstates their actual strength.

This site explains this and other beyond-the-raw-numbers analyses of team and player impact not in gaining yards but in actually contributing to wins.

Incidentally, that Tailgatepools pool seems hopeless fracked, but Mike S. is setting up a Yahoo pool for us. Hopefully we'll have that up soon.

Update: Mike set us up the pool. It's on Yahoo. Sign up info:

Group ID#: 62102
Password: scandi

Sorry about the problems with the other pool. Obviously we won't be going with that one, as it's just screwed.

This is a straight pick pool against the spread, all games need to be picked. No weighing of picks, though, which I personally found to be more of a headache than it was worth.


digg this
posted by Ace at 03:55 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
OregonMuse, AoSHQ Thought Leader & Contributing Editor, Vanity Fair Magazine: "[i]348 The NY Times is all concerned and stuff abo ..."

Tonypete: "Hell, it's only in my lifetime that the practice, ..."

Chopped Liver: "Heard today from a local politico that it seems th ..."

Puddin Head: "The original DUKW came with a canvas roof and stay ..."

Bandersnatch: "[i]Yahoo has a "Tiger Tracker" on its home page. T ..."

Anna Puma (HQCaR): "How to sink the FBI about Carter Page..."So Direct ..."

Tom Servo: "Re: the DUKW disaseter. The greatest design fla ..."

TickledPink: "Speaking of mass....are there a lot or at least a ..."

Nevergiveup: "Yahoo has a "Tiger Tracker" on its home page. The ..."

Captain Hate: "[i]well Tigers about to fall out of the lead, but ..."

JackStraw : ">>There's also the bit about nothing Page did ever ..."

OregonMuse, AoSHQ Thought Leader & Contributing Editor, Vanity Fair Magazine: "[i]Needing a short, purse-packable read to take to ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64