Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Moron Meet-Ups
Any interest in a MI/Midwest Meet-up?
It has a website!

Any interest in a SoCal Meet-up?
Contact Jim

NY/NJ MoMe: August 23rd, 6pm-9pm in Hoboken
Contact CBD

SW Ohio MoMe: 10/20/2018
Contact ibguy

Texas MoMe: 10/20/18
Contact Ben Had
Rhode Island: Whoever Wins, We Lose | Main | Duke Rape Accuser: "I'm going to get paid by the white boys"
November 07, 2006

Jay Cost: Under/Over Is Dems +19

But there is a decent chance of Republicans holding the House.

Last night I read a great Cost piece. I thought I got the link from RCP, but I can't seem to find it now. So I'll paraphrase the important bits from memory.

First, you can't just average the polls showing a modest Dem lead (Gallup, ABC/WaPo, Pew, Democracy Corps) with those showing a big Dem lead (CNN, FoxNews, Newsweek, etc.). Statistically these polls are too divergent -- one set of data is right and the other is wrong. It's not a high side of things/low side of things deal; either the low lead is right, or the high lead is right.

Forced to choose, Cost chooses the low end, based entirely on Gallup's proven reliability in methodology.

Based on Gallup's polling, this should translate (I think) to a 54-46 Democratic victory in the two-party vote.

It's difficult, he says, to predict how many seats that translates to. There was a model that worked well up until 1994, a model that showed a great deal of volatility and many changes in seats. But since 1994, there has been much less volatility, and a differential in raw vote totals equals far fewer seats won.

He can use a model based on the races since 1994 to guess the new math of translating vote share to seats won, but with so few elections since then (just five), there's just not nearly enough data to have confidence in the model.

Nevertheless, he plows forward anyway with best guesses. Assuming a 54/46 split, Dems gain 19 on average. About two thirds of the time they will gain something between 15 and 24. One third of the time they will gain fewer (11 to 14) or higher (say, 25-30), with probabilities split equally between these, more or less. There's a five percent chance the number of seats won will be beyond these parameters, too.

So, altogether, based on Gallup's polling (and not, I think, averaging it with the other polls in that range, which show a lesser Dem lead; Gallup has the biggest Dem lead of any of the low-end polls), the Republicans have about a 1 in 6 chance of holding the House, a two thirds chance of losing it from anywhere between 1 and 15 seats, and a one in six chance (about) chance of losing it by 16 to 20 seats (or perhaps a few more).

I don't think his models admit for any correction in Democratic skew in polling, because I would imagine that factor is already built in. Not sure about that, though.

Robert Novak also predicts 19 as his most likely Dem pickup. Michael Barone has it as 16, and he made that prediction two weeks ago. He didn't seem to want to adjust it when he mentioned that last night on Hannity & Colmes; I imagine this means he already assumed the polls were out of whack two weeks ago, so that the recent polling showing a smaller Democratic lead just bring the numbers closer to what he thought they were all along.

We should know pretty early. If the Republicans have any realistic chance of holding the house, they'll have to pick off one of two vulnerable Democrats in Georgia (GA 8 and GA 12). We've got ten seats more or less already lost due to scandal, and any realistic scenario means we're going to have to pick up at least one Dem-held seat to overcome the inevitable losses from seats now thought to be toss-ups. Georgia's polls close early, like at 7 or so, so we should have some idea if we're in this thing or not.

Unless, of course, those races are too close to call until the wee hours.

digg this
posted by Ace at 02:45 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
Zettai Roshia-no Botto: "The Emboldening... ..."

Skip: "Bold, I like that too ..."

Robin Hood of the ONT: "46 I could SWEAR I just saw the ONT, then it disap ..."

hogmartin: "...seeing shadows behind you in mirrors but they'r ..."

Anon a mouse: "Saw Mamma Mia 2" Mia too. Will have to put an e ..."

boulder t'hobo: "Whilst we wait, here is a sneak preview of one of ..."

Anna Puma (HQCaR): "Or the ONT has an active SEP field. ..."

All Hail Eris, She-Wolf of the 'Ettes 'Ettes: "The ONT has arrived. ..."

Zettai Roshia-no Botto: "Thirſt! ..."

Skip: "I like ice cream ..."

morigu: "top ten? ..."

All Hail Eris, She-Wolf of the 'Ettes 'Ettes: "Oooh, girthy! ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64