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November 05, 2006


Oh, dear.

Corrected: No one has any tip as to Gallup's results, coming later tonight, as I mistakenly wrote. I misread Kaus' column.


I have to admit, when I linked and hyped that ABC/WaPo poll -- which showed a dramatic tightening on the Generic Ballot question, from Dems +14 to Dems merely +6 -- I pretty much figured it would turn out to be a fluke, or to have greatly overstated the shift towards the GOP.

Yeah, I didn't outright say so. Game faces, man. Perfect candor is nice and all, but when you're behind by six points with forty seconds to go and the ball on your twenty yard line, maybe that's not the time for the perfectly candid assessment, "You know, in all likelihood, we're going to lose this thing."

Anyone who says that deserves a kick in the nards.

Pew poll also shows a dramatic tightening-- from an 11 point Dem advantage a couple of weeks ago to a 4 point Dem advantage this weekend. One more example and it will be a Trend.

But as Goldfinger said: "Once is happenstance. Twice is conicdence. Third time it's enemy action."

Alas, we don't have that all-important third time.

But we may tonight, if Gallup confirms this trend. They're releasing a poll later.

Words of Wisdom: from JackStraw:

I believe I said, like 3 months ago now, it will all come down to get out the vote.

Question: How the hell did Diebold get the contract to tabulate telephone-poll results?

Big Correction/Boy Is My Face Red: I completely misread that Kaus bit -- saying "Keep your eye on Gallup" -- as actually saying that Gallup should be showing a similar shift.

Kaus didn't say that, and neither did Real Clearl Politics. I missed the key word "if."

Thanks to Allah for correcting me.

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posted by Ace at 06:45 PM

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