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November 03, 2006

Ned Lamont, Loser: Michael Steele, Winner

Oy . MKH says that Lamont moves so stiffly and awkwardly in his ad you think he's doing a parody, and maybe he is. Maybe his campaign manager is Andy Kauffman, returned from the dead, and this is merely the most expensive comedy performance-art show ever staged.

For a bit of star-power, Lamont went to Joel Silver and got the Crypt-Keeper to do an ad for him too. For some reason, Paul Newman's doing the Crypt-Keeper's voice. Not really sure why.

Jim Geraghty predicted Michael Steele would win in Maryland.

Well, at the moment, he's tied, according to one poll, which means, I think, he wins by 4 or five points.

I'm adding 4-5 points to every Republican running in the Senate. 2-3 might be more conservative, but I'm guessing those independents are largely conflicted and will turn out even more lightly than usual in a midterm. I say they're conflicted because while they no longer believe we should have gone to war in Iraq, they also don't seem to like the idea of losing. They're more frustrated and saddened by the war than ready to make the ideological commitment to surrendering. The Democrats don't even really offer them that choice clearly, even if they were in that sort of a mood.

So, my predictions:

Burns holds.

Steele takes a Democratic-held seat.

Talent wins -- if not now, then in the subsequent litigation.

Corker wins.

For some reason, I think Allen's going to lose, even though my "add 4 or 5" points would say he's going to win. Virginia voters should, of course, vote anyway. Don't mean to be pessimistic. Just one of those feelings. It's the Mark Warner thing, I guess -- Virginia has expressed a preference for Democrats who claim to be conservatives, even if they (in this case) end up voting with the ultraliberals like John Kerry and Ted Kennedy.

Virginia is, in other words, retarded.

Same for Tom Kean, Jr. For reasons that outright baffle me, New Jersey voters seem A-OK with political corruption and judges imposing gay marriage on them against their preferences.

New Jersey is just liberal. Liberal, and stupid.

So, Republicans hold the Senate. Everyone immediately begins talking up Michael Steele for Vice President in '08.

And finally we can stop talking about Condi in '08.

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posted by Ace at 07:26 PM

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