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October 17, 2006

Cell-Phone-Only Youths Will Vote In Droves And Doom The GOP!!!

Well, probably not.

But again, the liberals are selling us on the idea that millions of young people, who can't be contacted by normal polling means (i.e., through landlines), will turn out like the Dickens to vote for the dicks.

Geraghty notes that poll refusniks are a much bigger problem. Very few people want to spend twenty minutes (or more) talking to a pollster.

Let's take this a little further. Republicans tend to do better in elections than polls show, indicating, perhaps, they refuse to answer poll-calls more often, or just aren't in the house to pick up the phone as often.

What if Democrats are more excited than usual, and hence more willing than usual to spend 25 minutes answering stupid questions on the phone?

And what if Republicans are less excited, and hence less willing than usual to do the same?

And what if Republicans aren't particularly excited to vote, but will by and large do so anyway?

Perhaps polling gets skewed by the excitment/dispirited mood of one party or another, resulting in polls that favor the "excited party" more than the election returns actually will.

Am I reaching? Maybe. Still, there are a lot of refusals to answer poll questions, and if those refusals aren't split in perfect proportion to the actual electorate, there's a built-in inaccuracy in polling.


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posted by Ace at 06:03 PM

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