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October 12, 2006

Straw Poll: Three Way Race Between Giuliani, Romney, & Gingrich

Pretty even split between the three. All are rated about the same level of acceptability, and Giuliani edges the others as a first choice.

McCain has a 44% net unacceptability rating.

Everyone knows I'm a Giuliani guy, but I like Romney too (as do many, it seems) as well as Gingrich (ditto, though I wonder if he really has a shot).

But the results do suggest a possilbe way for Guiliani to win: Romney and Gingrich's social-con credentials are pretty strong, and both are acceptable and legitimate candidates. Although there's been talk that Giuilini and McCain would split the social moderate vote, and thus guarantee a social-con candidate winning the nomination, it seems possible that Romney and Gingrich could split the social-con vote, and make Giuliani a winner.

That still requires him to actually become a social moderate at some point, rather than a social liberal, as he is now. There's no way an unreformed social liberal wins the Republican nomination.

Of course, the results are even better for Romney, aren't they? He doesn't have Guiliani's or Gingrich's name-recognintion yet, but he competes with them easily, and he doesn't have either of those men's political or personal baggage (divorce, etc.).

Meanwhile... Mark Warner drops out of a race he could have won. To, yes, spend more time with his family.


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posted by Ace at 02:27 PM

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