Straight Talk Express Jumps the Tracks in Alabama [Jack M.]

I wanted to post some happier news today. After all, I'm the guy who posted the "don't go wobbly" entry a couple of days ago, so it's my nature. And, normally, watching the Straight Talk Express derail would make me happy indeed.

Sadly, this story was the best I could do this morning. It ain't much, but at least it's a break from Foleyrama. Until Ace sobers up and starts posting again, anyway.

Plus, I know some inside scoop about this particular topic that you morons might think is interesting, or that you can use to impress those people who pretend to be your friends.

It appears Senator McCain went campaigning in Alabama, and was not so terribly well received.

U.S. Sen. John McCain was in Dothan Thursday to campaign for local Republican candidates, but he spent much of the time talking about national policy issues.

The senator spoke to about 70 supporters who each contributed $100 to the Alabama Republican Party Victory 2006 Fund.

He endorsed the local candidates and stressed the importance of maintaining Republican control of the House and Senate in November's elections.

Now for the heady, in depth analysis after the jump:

1) Alabama has no competitive House or Senate races this year. And the Governor's race has the GOP candidate, Bob Riley, leading by 20+ points. So clearly, McCain is using his time and prestige in places that really matter to maintaining GOP control of Congress and the States. Well played, Trebek!

2) Dothan is the largest city in the most conservative part of the state. The "wiregrass region" of Alabama is the GOP lynchpin. Republicans who wish to run successful statewide campaign traditionally need to win large majorities in this area, which allows them to offset losses in North Alabama and Birmingham. McCain only pulled in 70 people at $100 ($7,000 total) at this event. That's very weak.

3) It is even weaker when one considers this fact: John McCain's closest political advisor (and his 2000 campaign manager, and presumptive 2008 campaign manager) is a man named John Weaver. When Mr. Weaver was a GOP operative, he managed the campaign of current US Senator Jeff Sessions (R-Alabama) in 1996. This allowed Weaver to compile a huge list of GOP donors, activists, and voters throughout the state, but especially in super conservative Dothan. Despite rolling into the most conservative area of the state armed with all the contacts one could want in the Alabama Republican Party, McCain could still only get $7,000? I doubt this is what Weaver had in mind when he scheduled this event.

4) Weaver, as some of you may know, is now a Democratic operative. Why? Because Weaver used to be business partners with Karl Rove in Texas. The two men had a major falling out (we're talking blood fued) and when Rove successfully managed Bush's 2000 campaign (beating McCain/Weaver), Weaver accused Rove of using his newly acquired influence to "freeze" him out of GOP business. Essentially Weaver alleged that Lord of the Sith Karl Rove was telling prospective Republican candidates that if they wanted the White House to help them in the future they had best cut all ties to Weaver immediately. So Weaver bailed, and McCain is, I believe, his only Republican client left.

5) So what does this mean? It's a pretty good indicator of McCain's inherent weakness with the conservative base in the party. By way of comparison, President Bush was in Birmingham a few days ago for an event with Governor Bob Riley and raised a couple of million for the GOP. Now sure, comparing the money raised by a propsective candidate to a sitting President is comparing apples and oranges. But it's still interesting as a benchmark.

6) I actually did some "investigative reporting" (I called some of my old friends on Capitol Hill who are close to the McCain people) and asked why they thought the Senator wasn't getting much traction in a place like Alabama, which traditionally loves their war heroes. The answer: Illegal Alien Amnesty and the "torture" debate have taken a much heavier toll on McCain then previously thought. Even McCain's recent vote in favor of construction of the 700 mile border wall hasn't earned him any credit among these voters.

7) So, at this point in time, it appears that Alabama conservatives (and Southern Conservatives in general?) are still up for grabs. Can Yankees like Giuliani or Romney win their hearts and minds? Assuming Allen is done as a Presidential candidate, is there anyone else out there who has an inherent claim to these voters? Could a dark horse candidate still emerge out of dissatisfaction with all of the options? All good questions. I've started the ball rolling. If you have answers put them in the comments.

And, yes, if kevlarchick decides to start a petition to draft me for the 2008 nomination, I wouldn't say no.

I would, however, have to insist on Johnny M. Coldcuts as my VP candidate. So you can't say you weren't warned.

posted by Ace at 07:07 AM

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