The Splitter/Robot Argument | Main | On Conference Call With John Ashcroft
October 03, 2006

One More Point: We're Probably Going To Lose Anyway

...so those who think a bit of electoral punishment is in order are probably going to get their wish anyway. The two most likely possibilities are a fairly big Democratic win or a narrow Democratic win. A narrow Republican win is a distant third, even with improving numbers.

In 1994, a tsunami swept Republicans into power in Congress, and since then, the GOP has been losing those seats little by little (with the occasional small gain). It was the initial strength of that win -- having such a big cushion -- that's pretty much kept the GOP in power; bit by bit that cushion has been lost.

Anyone thinking of sitting on their hands this Nov. 7 should ask herself-- "How big of a cushion do I want to give the Democrats?" A very small Democrat win could result in the punishment-followed-by-rebuilding-followed-by-greater-conservative-fidelity scenario, with Republicans having a chance to win back Congress in two or four years.

But a large Democratic win might keep the Democrats in power for quite a while. Even if we win net seats for eight, ten, or twelve years, we might be in the position the Democrats are in now -- slowly taking back seats, but never taking quite enough to actually reestablish control.

Even if all conservatives turn out the way they did in 2002 or 2004, it's still likely Congress will be lost, because independents will be voting for Democrats, probably 60-40 or even 70-30.

So the loss is pretty likely, even with conservatives holding their noses. The question is whether it will be the sort of loss that can be recovered from in two years, or the sort of loss that will take twelve years to undo.

Good legislation gets passed in the House, where a narrow majority is enough to pass such legislation. It dies in the Senate, where there is a bare Republican majority, and of course not anything resembling a conservative majority. Our dissatisfaction with Congress stems chiefly, then, from the fact that there aren't enough Republicans in the Senate, not that there are too many. Punishing Coburn to get back at Chafee will hardly help matters. (And, again, Chafee would be just delighted to be a Big Important Swing Vote who gets interviewed on Chris Matthews every three days, to announce his decision on how much taxes should be raised or how many Gitmo prisoners should be immediately be freed.)

It's bad, but it could be worse. Those who say it couldn't be worse are forgetting about 1992, when many also said "Clinton couldn't be any worse."

Well, you know, for all of George H.W. Bush's flaws, Clinton was just a tad worse, wasn't he?


digg this
posted by Ace at 02:23 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Infidel: "I always thought Oct. 3 was a good day.  Seem ..."

Eromero: "I hope the ETEX moron fest went off in the dry. Ra ..."

redc1c4 [/b] [/i] [/s] [/u]: "not sure about about quiet "today", but it's almos ..."

Skandia Recluse: " Is there news? ..."

Tim in Illinois: "Going to be a quiet day. Might as well get some re ..."

redc1c4 [/b] [/i] [/s] [/u]: "/me pulls pins on 2 thermites and 2 Willie Petes,. ..."

redc1c4 [/b] [/i] [/s] [/u]: "#674... wrong link, not that it's not awesome, it' ..."

The Keeper: " WE ARE OVERLOADED ON THETANS. ENTIRE CLOSETS A ..."

redc1c4 [/b] [/i] [/s] [/u]: "there are only 3 sexes:malefemalebat shit crazycho ..."

redc1c4 [/b] [/i] [/s] [/u]: "Posted by: The Keeper at October 22, 2017 04:59 AM ..."

The Political Hat: "I've been getting hundreds of replies to my tweet ..."

redc1c4 [/b] [/i] [/s] [/u]: "what else needs to be said?SFW unless your boss or ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64