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December 28, 2004

Dick Morris: When You Want Attention, Say Something Silly

Morris, who's correctly forecast zero of his last twenty predictions, says Hillary will win in 2008.

I honestly don't know if he's perfectly candid here or just a scribe with a deadline needing something provocative to write about:

Longtime presidential strategist Dick Morris had words of caution yesterday for those who say Hillary Clinton can't generate the kind of national support she needs to put herself back in White House in 2008.

Not only will Sen. Clinton win her party's nomination in a walk, the former Clinton adviser contends, her chances of beating the GOP four years from now are "superb."

...

"The problem is," added the top consultant, "she has an awfully good chance of winning the election."

Explained Morris:

"She generates black turnout that's about 10 points higher than [John] Kerry got. So that's one extra point for the Democratic Party.

"She probably is going to restore the Hispanic margin to 30 points, as opposed to the 10-point margin Kerry had. That's two points extra for the Democrats.

"And she'll probably carry single women by 4-to-1. Kerry carried them by 2-to-1. So that's another two points [for the Dems]."

That's five points' worth of support the Democrats didn't get in this year's vote - enough to trump President Bush's 51 percent to 49 percent margin of victory.
...

Are there no Republican candidates on the horizon who can stop the former first lady?

Morris named three possibilities: Rudy Giuliani, Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice.

...

"Condoleezza Rice takes the black base and she takes the female base that's absolutely essential for Hillary's victory."

Said Morris: "Rice is the only person who can stop Hillary Clinton from being president."

I keep saying this about Rice, but no one seems to listen. Yes, everyone's thrilled at the prospect of the Republicans running a female black candidate with impeccable foreign policy credentials (of the tough-guy sort, too, unlike Madeline Somewhatbright), but the woman has never once stood for public election before.

People treat this as if it's some minor thing. It's not. Politics is a strange business, and not many people have the skill-set to be successful at it.

Toss in the fact that she's almost certainly too pro-choice and pro-Affirmative Action for the Republican base and you've got additional problems. Problems that a very skilled politician like Bill Clinton might be able to finesse, but we have no evidence that Condi Rice has any real political skill at all, much less Clinton-level skill.

I like Condi Rice a great deal. I'd love to see her be President. But I think some in the blog world, and some in the somewhat mainstream media like Morris, are thinking with their hearts and not with their heads.

And as for Hillary?

I don't buy her carrying women 4 to 1 for a second. A lot of women love Hillary, but a nearly equal number despise her.



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posted by Ace at 02:41 PM

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