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December 14, 2004

Realignment Reality?

Gallup says maybe:

Even as a new Gallup poll shows that the public values “values” less than November exit polls suggested, another survey from the same outfit released today showed a historic surge in Republican party affiliation.

In Gallup's latest poll this month, those identifying themselves as Republicans jumped to 37% of the public, with Democrats now clearly trailing with 32%.

Democrats have long held more party members than Republicans. During the Clinton years, the bulge was about 5% to 6%. As recently as late-October of this year the Democratic edge was 37% to 34%.

Gallup noted today: “Post-election shifts in partisanship after presidential elections or midterm congressional elections are not routine, but are also not uncommon.”

Memo to the GOP: Don't blow it.

As the late great Michael Kelly observed, every time the Republicans seem on the verge of genuine popularity or electoral dominance, they blow it, by giving in to their worst and/or most sincere (depending on how you view it) instincts.

I guess I'll catch hell from my harder-core conservative readers, but there is no mandate for a strong-form conservative government. There seems to be a mandate for a center-right government with a lot of conservatism, but tempered by reality.

To this extent I'm not terribly upset that George W. Bush seems like a bit of counterfeit conservative (except on his outsized spending, which I find gob-smackingly vile). I'm not sure the time is right for a full-blown strong-form capital-C Conservative Revolutionary, and I don't know if that time will come for twenty or forty years.


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posted by Ace at 08:24 PM

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