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October 25, 2004

Boy, Is Hoke Malokey a Pill!

But damnit, he's an astute political observer. He's always been pessimisstic about every election I can remember, but pessimists are right 50% of the time. He thought Bush would lose in 2000, and let's face it, it's hard to call that prediction completely "wrong." He called the 1998 midterms right, or at least more right than I did.

Here's Hokey, with a bit of Monday cheer. If any of this pisses you off, I suggest you take your anger into the voting booth with you and prove him wrong:

Hoke Malokey is telling you - start to position yourself for the Kerry win. The problem with the conservative groupthink is that it becomes its own echo chamber. Coupled with the conservative view that, in our heart, "you just know he's right," there is this feeling that somehow, a Kerry win just won't happen, because it would be so wrong. We rightly complain of the emotionalism of the opposition, but it is we who have candy-coated the reality. It is our emotion that feeds our certitude.

So we glom onto every favorable poll, ignorant of the fact that the president's job approval is in the toilet, and it is a mere struggle to make him competitive. And a new Swift Boat ad or "the wolf" or "the hug" -- that confirms our view that in the end, the message will sway the voters. We see "security moms" in polls, and we transform the suburban mother into a square-jawed Karen Hughes. We imagine a hidden steel in the backbone of the American voter while in the midst of the difficult Iraqi endeavor, even while Cold War conservatives begin to backbite the neocons because the costs, a mere 19 months in, are simply too great to bear.

A Kerry win will happen. Terezza's gaffe means nothing compared to the
cries of a desperate female British aid worker. That's the last image the
voters will take with them to the booths (or, more likely, her decapitation),
even if they aren't cognizant of it. And with Bush, the soft center of the American electorate will simply decide that the deaths and the abductions
and the explosions and the beheadings of women weren't there until, coincidentally, Bush arrived on the job. Hell, 9-11 wasn't here until Bush
was here, they'll conclude, however subconsciously (because, you know, 9-11
was so long ago).

And down Bush will go. It will be close, as the president's team has been valiant, but he'll take the tumble.

16 states are in play. Here is how it will pan out --

New Hampshire - Kerry
Nevada- Kerry
Ohio - Kerry
Pennsylvania - Kerry
Minnesota - Kerry
Hawaii - Kerry
Maine - Kerry

Colorado - Bush
New Mexico - Bush
Missouri - Bush
West Virginia - Bush
Florida - Bush
Wisconsin - Bush
Iowa - Bush
Arkansas -Bush

and my shocker - Virginia goes Kerry, sealing the win, 280 to 258.

Okay, here's my confession. Right Wing News polled 85 bloggers about election predictions. I delayed responding because I didn't want to answer.

He notes 6 bloggers thought that Kerry would win. I was one of the six.

That's not a hard and fast prediction. I know Bush is slightly, sorta-kinda ahead. But I'm watching this election with the same sense of dread as watching a New York Giants football game, with the Giants barely leading on the scoreboard but leaving their opponents in the game by never delivering the knockout blow; I feel a little momentum drifting towards the opponent. If you just leave an opponent in the game, at some point he's going to take the lead. Suck for you if he does so right before time expires.

Predictions are like opinions, and opinions are like-- well, I'm trying to clean things up here a bit. You know what opinions are like.

Vote. I keep saying this because I know that a little bit less than half of the readers of this site could vote, but won't. They'll be very interested in the election's outcome, but not quite so interested as to rouse themselves to take a trip to the local firehouse.

Vote. It's important. Polls and predictions are meaningless. What counts is whether or not those who actually support Bush can take the hour out of their day to register that support at the polls.

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posted by Ace at 12:07 PM

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