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September 29, 2004

2nd Quarter GDP Growth Much Higher Than Originally Estimated

Adjusted by a big half-point upwards, from 2.8% to 3.3%

My source Deep Stoat tips me before it's up on Yahoo Finance. (I think.)

A chart here; full report here.

Some highlights:

* During the 2nd quarter of 2004, GDP grew at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 3.3 percent. Over the past year, GDP has increased by 4.8 percent.

* Business investment was stronger than expected, growing at a robust 12.5 percent annualized pace in the 2nd quarter.

* Export growth was strong and the revised 2nd quarter trade deficit was slightly smaller than previously estimated.

* Residential investment, primarily home building, was also revised up and is now estimated to have grown at a very strong 16.5 percent annualized rate. This is the second strongest quarterly growth in home building in eight years.


CNN previously said that the initial reading of 3.0% growth was "much lower" than analysts' expectations of 3.7% growth.

Now, see if you can follow this crazy math:

If a .7% gap between expectations and early readings constitutes a "much lower" rate of growth, will CNN also report that an upward revision of .5% constitutes a "much higher" rate of growth than earlier reported?

I wouldn't bet the farm on that proposition.

On the other hand, I'm quite ready to provide the cowbell that's so obviously required by this turn of events:

Update: The insurgent militant reporters at Reuters have a glowing sub-hed for the faster growth:

NOT SO BAD, REALLY

Not so bad, really. When it fails to match analysts' predictions by .7%, it's much slower growth. When it's adjusted back up by .5%, it's "not so bad, really."



digg this
posted by Ace at 01:00 PM

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