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September 27, 2004

CNN Headline, And I Quote: "Bush apparently leads Kerry in pre-debate poll"

Emphasis mine.

The CNN/USAT/Gallup poll shows Bush ahead by 8 with likelies and, oddly enough, ahead by 11 with registered voters. (The ABCNews/WaPo poll also finds Bush doing better with RVs, so maybe this is a real thing going on here.)

CNN's headline: Bush is apparently ahead.

"Apparently"?

He's on the very edge of the margin of error. The MoE is +/- 4 for either candidate; but that doesn't mean that a 8 point lead is meaningless-- far from it. It is pretty unlikely these men are tied at the moment; furthermore, Kerry can't be ahead, unless this is one of those 1-in-20 polls that is simply unreflective of the greater population.

With the ABCNews/WaPo poll confirming the general picture -- Bush ahead, and significantly so -- the "1-in-20 polls are garbage" theory would seem to be weak.

Does CNN typically say that one candidate is "apparently" ahead by a whopping 8 points (more with registered voters), or do they only do that when the wrong candidate is "apparently" ahead?

Ace of Spades HQ Headline:

Panicked CNN Liberals Apparently Still Believe They Can and Should Cocoon Their Audience

Hey, look, I only said apparently.

Ace of Spades HQ Future Headlines (provided to me by my friend, the time-travelling bologna sandwich called Johnny Coldcuts):

Bush Apparently Wins Re-Election

Apparently Takes 325 Electoral Votes; Apparently Nets 55% of Vote in Reagan-Like Avalanche

Will Take Second Oath of Office in January, Apparently

Judy Woodruff Apparently Suffering From Clinical Depression; Will Apparently Spend a Few Weeks at the Hazelton Clinic






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