Ace of Spades HQ

« Remember | Main | Newsweek Suggests Possible Source For CBSNews "Documents" »

September 12, 2004

Should Pollsters Weight Polls By Party ID of Subjects?

This is something that's forever being argued about-- I know that when I see a poll that has a suspiciously-high sample of Democrats in its sample, I discount it.

Of course, right now there are a suspiciously-high number of Republicans in the Time and Newsweek polls, and, while I do partly discount those polls for that reason, I also partly believe them.

Which is, of course, inconsistent. I don't believe one poll because I don't want to believe it; I believe another because I want to believe it.

Dan Rather can tell you all about the power of wanting something to be true. Just ask him in a month, when he's retired.

At any rate, a real live pollster writes to MyDD to explain why his firm doesn't weight by party ID. It's a good introduction to the issue.

posted by Ace at 05:19 AM

| Access Comments


Advertise Here! Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Recent Entries Daily Tech News 23 November 2024 The ONTs Of Others Police Cat Cafe It's a Clown World After All Just The News: The Capitol Hill Cop Who Murdered Ashley Babbit Had Long Disciplinary Record Including Reports of Mishandling Firearms Musk, Vivek Lay Out Their Plans to Make America Solvent Again Shocker: After Briefly Tamping Down on Illegal Alien Migration Just Before the Election, Biden Re-Opens The Spigots As He Exits the Stage California Defaults on Federal Covid Loan to Pay for Illegals; State Shellacks Business Owners With 50% Increase in Payroll Taxes (for Years and Years) To Pay the Loan Back Plus: The Rise of the ASE (Anti-Search Engine) Joe and Mika's Ratings Continue Collapsing Since They "Slithered on Their Bellies to Lick Trump's Boots" After Staging an Insurrection for a Week and Attempting to Steal an Election By Counting Invalid Votes, Bob Casey Finally Concedes the Race for PA Senate to the Winner Dave McCormick Absent Friends Bandersnatch 2024 GnuBreed 2024 Captain Hate 2023 moon_over_vermont 2023 westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 AoSHQ Writers Group A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info: maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security Cutting The Cord [Joe Mannix (not a cop)] Cutting The Cord: It's Easier Than You Think [Blaster] Private Email and Secure Signatures [Hogmartin] Moron Meet-Ups	« Remember \| Main \| Newsweek Suggests Possible Source For CBSNews "Documents" » September 12, 2004 Should Pollsters Weight Polls By Party ID of Subjects? This is something that's forever being argued about-- I know that when I see a poll that has a suspiciously-high sample of Democrats in its sample, I discount it. Of course, right now there are a suspiciously-high number of Republicans in the Time and Newsweek polls, and, while I do partly discount those polls for that reason, I also partly believe them. Which is, of course, inconsistent. I don't believe one poll because I don't want to believe it; I believe another because I want to believe it. Dan Rather can tell you all about the power of wanting something to be true. Just ask him in a month, when he's retired. At any rate, a real live pollster writes to MyDD to explain why his firm doesn't weight by party ID. It's a good introduction to the issue. posted by Ace at 05:19 AM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments Grumpy and Recalcitrant[/i][/b]: ". NOOD Tech NOOD ..." Ciampino - Talking of glasses: "AAAAAA - American Association Against Acronym Abus ..." Grumpy and Recalcitrant[/i][/b]: "Mornin' Horde. Well it's been a lousy 36 hours. ..." cuckquean sex stories: "On April 11, 1991, the House of Representatives ha ..." Toad-0: "Came in late (as usual), reading the older comment ..." 297373.xyz: "But years later, the two males joined together aga ..." Toad-0: "Replacement lenses fixed my astigmatism, too. Most ..." https://Www.Freeliveadultchat.com/shtml/132.html: "Moreover, it is excellent for a newbie model to ge ..." Ciampino - Talking of glasses: "My cataracts are really bad plus they won't give m ..." JQ: "Well, dang it, I gotta hit the hay. Thanks for ..." JQ: "Hmmm. I have astigmatism in both eyes. Maybe shoul ..." Toad-0: "LASIK changes the shape of your eyeball. They say ..." Recent Entries Daily Tech News 23 November 2024 The ONTs Of Others Police Cat Cafe It's a Clown World After All Just The News: The Capitol Hill Cop Who Murdered Ashley Babbit Had Long Disciplinary Record Including Reports of Mishandling Firearms Musk, Vivek Lay Out Their Plans to Make America Solvent Again Shocker: After Briefly Tamping Down on Illegal Alien Migration Just Before the Election, Biden Re-Opens The Spigots As He Exits the Stage California Defaults on Federal Covid Loan to Pay for Illegals; State Shellacks Business Owners With 50% Increase in Payroll Taxes (for Years and Years) To Pay the Loan Back Plus: The Rise of the ASE (Anti-Search Engine) Joe and Mika's Ratings Continue Collapsing Since They "Slithered on Their Bellies to Lick Trump's Boots" After Staging an Insurrection for a Week and Attempting to Steal an Election By Counting Invalid Votes, Bob Casey Finally Concedes the Race for PA Senate to the Winner Dave McCormick Search Search this site: Polls! Polls! Polls! Frequently Asked Questions What is the Deal with the Cowbell? Why is the Ace of Spades called "the Death Card"? The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick Primary Document: The Audio Paul Anka Haiku Contest Announcement Integrity SAT's: Entrance Exam for Paul Anka's Band AllahPundit's Paul Anka 45's Collection AnkaPundit: Paul Anka Takes Over the Site for a Weekend (Continues through to Monday's postings) George Bush Slices Don Rumsfeld Like an Fckin' Hammer Top Top Tens Democratic Forays into Erotica New Shows On Gore's DNC/MTV Network Nicknames for Potatoes, By People Who Really* Hate Potatoes Star Wars Euphemisms for Self-Abuse Signs You're at an Iraqi "Wedding Party" Signs Your Clown Has Gone Bad Signs That You, Geroge Michael, Should Probably Just Give It Up Signs of Hip-Hop Influence on John Kerry NYT Headlines Spinning Bush's Jobs Boom Things People Are More Likely to Say Than "Did You Hear What Al Franken Said Yesterday?" Signs that Paul Krugman Has Lost His Frickin' Mind All-Time Best NBA Players, According to Senator Robert Byrd Other Bad Things About the Jews, According to the Koran Signs That David Letterman Just Doesn't Care Anymore Examples of Bob Kerrey's Insufferable Racial Jackassery Signs Andy Rooney Is Going Senile Other Judgments Dick Clarke Made About Condi Rice Based on Her Appearance Collective Names for Groups of People John Kerry's Other Vietnam Super-Pets Cool Things About the XM8 Assault Rifle Media-Approved Facts About the Democrat Spy Changes to Make Christianity More "Inclusive" Secret John Kerry Senatorial Accomplishments John Edwards Campaign Excuses John Kerry Pick-Up Lines Changes Liberal Senator George Michell Will Make at Disney Torments in Dog-Hell Greatest Hitjobs The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Syndicate this site (XML) Powered by Movable Type 2.64