Rudy Didn't Fail: Guiliani Speech Sways More Voters than McCain or Arnold | Main | Gallup: 7 Point Lead
September 06, 2004

That Newsweek Poll: Too Biased in Favor of Kerry?

I have trouble believing this, but DJ Drummond at PoliPundit makes an interesting case.

As CrushKerry noted, the Newsweek poll sample had about 37% Republicans and 31% Democrats. (Most people believe actual party identification is something like 31-33% for both.) So, CrushKerry argued (and I agreed) that poll probably overstated Bush's true lead, at least by 20-25%. (And that doesn't even consider other problems the poll might have, like just hitting an unrepresentative sample.)

Well, looking deeper at the raw numbers, DJ finds, first, that independents broke this time for Bush 45-40, a big reversal from Kerry's previous lead with this group, and second, that the poll actually found even more people self-identifying as Republican, but the pollsters gave heavier weight to Democratic respondents in order to correct for a too-high sampling of Republicans.

Without that weighting, Bush's lead was even bigger. Huge, in fact. The technical mathematical term for it is "freakin' ginormous."

The dramatic shift in independents' sentiments alone should be plenty worrisome for Kerry.

I don't know what to make of that second point-- I don't think we can make much of it, since this country is obviously not 42% Republican, except to say that Newsweek did at least some counterweighting to reduce the Republican advantage in sampling.

Now, Fred Barnes has of course predicted eleven of the last zero poltical realignments in favor of Republicans. But if Time magazine similarly found they were getting a lot more self-identifying Republicans on the phone than they expected, Barnes might be tempted to write his twelfth column predicting that "the country is realigning to become plurality-Republican," and who knows? This time, he might even be right.

Susan Lucci eventually got her Emmy, after all.

(Take that, those who said I was unduly pessimistic last time out. I balance my undue pessimism with wild-eyed lunatic optimism.)

Update: I should have finished reading the analysis.

Actually, it's not as bad as all that for the Sinking Senator.

It may be worse.

But... Rasmussen shows just a single point lead. A lead of 1.2%. One point freakin' two.


digg this
posted by Ace at 04:07 AM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
girl in Magnum intro learning to snorkel- currently represented by Gloria Allred: "Tom Selleck looked lasciviously at my butt. My but ..."

runner: "@423 I ....don't know what to say.... ..."

ALH: "1st ..."

Tonypete: "Wow! What a cookbook. I am overwhelmed by the ..."

publius, the Persistent Poperin Pear: " Oh, yes, Bogie and Cary Grant are up there. ..."

Beltway Elite: "Magnum P.I. is still fantastic.  The dog is a ..."

Yor, the Hunter from the Future: "Choose one (1). You don't get to pose as heroes wo ..."

Hadrian the Seventh: " Alors, le nood. ..."

Roc Ingersol : "Posted by: Aetius451AD Work Laptop at December 11, ..."

ALH: "Evening, Horde! Nice ONT, MisHum. Is that glass of ..."

mrp, the gauche American: "Once upon a time, my Dad returned home from a Euro ..."

Your Decidedly Devious Uncle Palpatine, Booking Agent, Aero Pinochet: "436. Because he hung out with Peter Lorre. ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64