A Dukakian Fall? | Main | Top Ten Signs That Zell Miller is On Frickin' Fire
September 02, 2004

No Cowbell on Friday?

Over at FreeRepublic, someone said that Jeff Greenfield reported the rumor -- just a rumor -- that Friday's August job figures would be bad. As in, bad for the country. Bad for Bush.

That could just be a planted rumor, designed to lower expectations. But now I'm worried.

One might even say I'm outraged, chagrined, sick to my stomach, "gob-smacked," appalled, horrified, and filled with "heart-ache" that I can't "quite dislodge from my consciousness."

A source tells me:

But seriously, I'm not sure if you knew this or not, but President Bush
will have the August employment data before he gives his speech tonight.
Common practice is for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to send a scrambled fax
to the Council of Economic Advisers on Thursday afternoon, ahead of the
Friday morning release. The CEA then of course gets it to the President,
SecTreas, and Fed Chairman ASAP, and so they are all in the know.

I don't have a story to point you to, unfortunately. This is something
that I have picked up from economics research I read as part of my job.

The questions:
1) Does Bush 'shade' his speech tonight depending on the jobs data?
2) Since this is common knowledge (that Bush will have the data ahead of time), how will the lefties spin it?

I wonder if some of the speakers (especially Dick Cheney) already knew the numbers when they spoke. I'm not sure how early this stuff gets circulated among the administration (I just wrote back to ask). If it only gets released the night before, then ignore what comes next.

I'm fearing that we've already seen "shading" that may indicate a stinker of a jobs report.

None of the speakers, to my knowledge, has mentioned Bush's recent job creation*; to the extent they mention the economy, they mention low interest rates, expanding manufacturing, and home ownership. The fact that they seem to be avoiding mentioning jobs at all tells me they don't want to emphasize that particular datum, which means they might be expecting bad news on that front tomorrow morning.

As my personal hero Dan Rather says:

Courage.


* Someone may have mentioned it. I haven't watched gavel-to-gavel. If any of the featured, prime-time speakers mentioned it, they didn't do so very prominently, because I just have no recollection of it at all.

Unrelated Rumor Update: FreeRepublic is quite the rumor mill.

This is just a rumor, and we've heard this crap before, and there's no sourcing here whatsoever.

I think it's bullshit. I'm posting it, however, because I'm irresponsible and attention-craving.

Update: Questions Answered.

Morpheus:

The CEA gets the fax late Thursday afternoon from the BLS (again, this is standard practice - I'm not sure if they might 'break' from that practice and give the admin an even earlier heads-up) so I doubt they have the actual numbers in front of them yet. It does take some work by the BLS to compile the data into usable statistics. However, some of the data this week, such as the ISM manufacturing survey, the Chicago PMI, and today's jobless claims numbers, have been a bit softer and point to possible disappointment for the August payroll numbers.

The Republicans may have used these stats as reason to shade away from job creation as a theme.

Larry Jones:

The White House receives the numbers on the Thursday evening before the Friday release. They're not floating around anywhere before that. Second, while Greenfield may end up being correct, he has no clue what he's talking about. There is absolutely no way for him to know what's going to happen tomorrow.

Answered, but not perfectly consistent. Morpheus thinks there's a chance that the numbers may have been circulated earlier, although that's not the practice, and Larry seems to rule that possibility out.

Either way, though, it seems like Jeff Greenfield doesn't know what he's talking about.

It's reassuring to have one's deeply-held beliefs ocassionally reassured like that.

Update: Larry clarifies: He said no way, he meant no way.


digg this
posted by Ace at 02:37 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
blaster: "Stupid browser rendering popping things around on ..."

Ruthless: "A screaming lib Senator from AL cannot be used as ..."

Brother Cavil, Cylon Cassandra: "[i]Acceptable. Your discernment will also lead you ..."

Blackrock: "Gee, we ran a nutcase child molester and have no i ..."

MAGA: "452 McConnell is a turd-el , but he hasn't gotten ..."

Tom Servo: "The other slavery comment - this from 2010, I thin ..."

runner: "Moldovan women are quite beautiful. = you t ..."

Soothie: " Did you see that horse? Hideous. And it behaved ..."

TheQuietMan: " Fox Business has been showing Strzk's text mes ..."

joncelli, because somebody had to: "484 I thought ZhMIL last night was a sock trying t ..."

Ian S.: "[i]That said, if Bannon was half as smart as he th ..."

Bertram Cabot, Jr.: " [i]Silence, you bubble-headed boobie! Posted by ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64