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August 03, 2004

Of Bounces and "Suspicious Timing"

A week ago, the WashPost & ABCNews put out a poll showing Bush gaining big.

The poster called "Kerry is Unelectable" called shenanigans on that poll. He thought the poll was deliberately biased in favor of Bush so as to produce a big Kerry bounce after the convention. In other words, the lower Kerry's support seemed to be right before the convention, the bigger the "bounce" he would show afterwards.

Now, I didn't really buy that theory then, and I don't know if I do now, either. But I do have to note that Kerry Is Unelectable at least called the outcome of the two polls, if not the chicanery behind them. In fact, it's the ABCNews/WashPost polls that are showing the biggest Kerry "bounce," all based off of the cratering Kerry support reported in the previous poll. Had that earlier poll shown results more in-line with other polls, the new poll wouldn't show a bounce at all.

Kausfiles (August 3 entry) dismisses that earlier poll as a likely outlier, and decides that Kerry probably got little if any bounce at all.


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posted by Ace at 05:18 PM

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