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June 30, 2004

Kerry Support Plummets in... Maine?!?!

Bush's numbers are improving in a bunch of crucial states -- Arizona (need it), Colorado (need it), and Wisconsin (want it), as well as Florida and Ohio (need it, need it).

But now Kerry's losing support in... Maine? Maine, whose license plates read "The Almost-Canada State"? Maine, which views vacationers from Boston and Burlington, Vermont as right-wing redneck yahoo invaders?

But yeah-- Maine too, now:

PORTLAND, Maine — John Kerry´s double-digit lead over President Bush evaporated Wednesday in a new statewide poll that also found a drop in support for a controversial plan to cap property taxes.

Bush and Kerry were tied at 35.5 percent, according to the latest quarterly survey by Strategic Marketing Services. But when those leaning toward the candidate were added to those who intended to vote for him, Kerry had a slight edge, 43.5 percent to 41 percent. Ralph Nader had 4.5 percent and 11 percent were undecided.

By contrast, the marketing research firm´s Omnibus Poll in March showed 51 percent intending to vote or leaning toward Kerry, compared to 38 percent for Bush, 4 percent for Nader and 7.5 percent undecided.

A poll conducted this spring by another Portland firm, Critical Insights, had Kerry leading Bush by a margin of 49 percent to 39 percent, with 12 percent either undecided or favoring another candidate.

Patrick Murphy, president of Strategic Marketing Services, said he was "a bit surprised" by the size of the drop in Kerry´s support. He suggested that the numbers may reflect Republican advertising that Kerry had yet to respond to as well as the blanket news coverage of former President Ronald Reagan´s funeral.

Look, I'm no Larry Sabato, but if Kerry has to fight for Maine, he's gonna have some problems in Pennsylvania, no?

But Let's Not Open the Champagne Yet: ARG, which I tend to find errs on the side of Democrats, finds that Kerry leads in absolutely-gotta-have-it Ohio.

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posted by Ace at 07:22 PM

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