New Poll Predicts That Charlie Crist Will Be Found in a Motel Room OD'd on Lube and Ketamine Within 45 Days; All Statewide Republican Candidates Ahead Comfortably

Politico notes the recent electoral history in Florida:

DeSantis beat Andrew Gillum in 2018 by more than 32,000 votes, or about 0.4 percent. Then-Gov. Rick Scott beat Crist by roughly 1 percent in 2014. .

And now...?

Nah.

Mason Dixon Polling & Strategy on Wednesday released survey results that showed DeSantis with a commanding 11-point lead over Democrat Charlie Crist: 52 percent to 41 percent.

That same poll showed all three Republicans seeking Cabinet posts also with double-digit leads: Attorney General Ashley Moody up over Aramis Ayala, 50 percent to 37 percent; Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis leads Adam Hattersley, 47 percent to 37 percent; and Senate President Wilton Simpson with a clear advantage over Naomi Esther Blemur in the agriculture commissioner race, 47 percent to 34 percent.

The breakdown of DeSantis' numbers shows that he has a commanding lead among white voters, males and older voters. Crist does have an 8-point advantage with Hispanic voters and a slight lead among female voters. The incumbent governor also has a double-digit edge -- 52 percent to 39 percent -- with unaffiliated voters.

A Democrat "leading" a Republican with Hispanics by 8 points is losing. A Democrat with a "slight" lead among female voters is losing badly.

On the other hand, you have this old ratbag, this Admitted Bette Midler Fornicator, who looks like he smells like a box of gym farts and knockoff CK One:

Geraldo Rivera
@GeraldoRivera

Governor DeSantis will soon feel the wrath of Florida's Latino voters outraged by his toying with the lives of those Venezuelan refugees he exploited.

8 point lead, Jerry. Ocho puntos.

Via John Sexton, the New York Times notes the Red Tide Rising in the national senate race.

On average, Republicans have gained three points across 19 post-Labor Day polls of the key Senate battleground states, compared with pre-Labor Day polls of the same states by the same pollsters.

The shift is similar to what we observed a few weeks ago. What's changed with more data: We can be sure that the polling shift is real, and we have more clarity about where Republicans are making their biggest gains -- Pennsylvania and Wisconsin...

John Fetterman still leads Dr. Mehmet Oz in the polls taken since Labor Day. In fact, he basically leads in every one of them, by an average of around four percentage points.

But Dr. Oz has nonetheless made significant gains. On average, he has closed by a net of six percentage points in post-Labor Day polling, compared with surveys by the same pollsters taken before Labor Day.

The Cook Political Report put the race into the "toss up" category.

Sexton also links Axios, noting that Ron Johnson now leads Mandela Barnes by five points.

It seems that informational ads -- I don't even think they should be called "attack ads" -- about Barnes' extremist record and statements are having an effect:

A Fox News poll released this week, which showed Johnson ahead by four points, found 44% of Wisconsin voters believing Barnes' views are "too extreme" -- a point higher than those who viewed Johnson the same way. The share of voters who now view Barnes as too extreme spiked 14 points in the last month.

He is indeed an extremist -- or, actually, a standard-issue Democrat, 2022 Edition.

Early on, [Mandela Barnes] demonstrated his liberal leanings by suggesting that progressives who move to the center are "compromising all integrity." He once jokingly referred to lefty U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, known by her initials AOC, as "my president." He imagined using the COVID-19 pandemic to revamp society.

"We should drastically reimagine society, our communities, and what quality of life actually means in a moment like this," Barnes tweeted in March 2020, just as coronavirus was starting to spread.

Barnes asked in November 2016 if the presidential election had been "rigged." Months later, the first-term Democrat declared Donald Trump, then president, a "Russian spy." More recently, he dismissed the notion that George Washington was one of the country's top presidents.

Barnes once said he "really could not care less about a 2nd Amendment 'right'" to bear arms. He also criticized House GOP Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana for not changing his position on gun control after being shot in the hip during practice for the Congressional Baseball Game in 2017.

"Taking one for the team," Barnes wrote even as Scalise was using crutches and a scooter to get around the Capitol. "I question how people vote against self interest but this is next level. He literally almost died on this hill."

In recent years, Barnes has ripped two moderate Democratic senators with whom he would have to serve if elected, even suggesting Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia was a "missing vertebrae" in the Senate Democrats' spine.

In addition, Barnes, who is vying to be the state's first Black senator, has opined on police and community unrest, two subjects for which he has been criticized during the election.

During the 2014 Ferguson protests, which erupted after the fatal shooting of Michael Brown, Barnes acknowledged his struggle to call for peace there. As for police, he tweeted that "not all police" are corrupt or racist.

"BUT, if I gave you a bowl of skittles and told you three were poison..." he tweeted in response in 2016 to a post about the number of people killed by police in the U.S. A day earlier, Trump made the exact same Skittles analogy regarding Syrian refugees.

...

Alec Zimmerman, a spokesman for Johnson, said the tweets give the public an insight into the actual views of the Democratic politician.

"Mandela Barnes' tweets speak for themselves," Zimmerman said.

"He excuses violent rioters, but compares devoted Christians to terrorists. He bashes the Constitution, police and the Founding Fathers," Zimmerman added, "No amount of ducking the media and cutesy television ads can change the truth that at his core, Mandela Barnes is a dangerous extremist."

CNN's election analyst Harry Enten has more bad news for CNN's maniacal partisans: Black voters aren't super-enthused about voting Blue, Sister Toldjah reports at RedState.

And as you can see here in the race for Congress, look, they're still getting 74 percent support in the pre-election polling right now. But compare that to the final polling for 2020 president and 2018 Congress. Back in 2020 it was 84 percent, 85 percent in 2018. So, you're clearly seeing right here that there is less support for Democratic candidates for Congress among African Americans.

And you can look at the Republican column as well and you can see that 12 percent, not exactly high, but that's actually the high water mark. It was 9 percent in 2020, 9 percent in 2018. So, basically, what was about a 75, 76 point margin is now down in the low 60s.

He points out that this could effect Governor Stacey Abrams' bid for re-election:

If you're looking at Georgia here, what should see, as you can see, if you compare the 2022 polling to 2018, Brian Kemp is clearly picking up ground overall, six points -- his lead is six points larger. But among African American voters, look at that, Stacey Abrams' lead is actually down from 79 points in the final 2018 polling to 67 points now.

That's a drop of... seven minus six, carry the one, two, one... well I didn't start this blog to do fucking arithmetic, you nerd mathmatiqueers, but as you can see, one number is plainly lower than the other one, and I think that's all a Real Man needs to know. We work from Gut and Experience.

Video of that at the link.

The leftwing pollsters worry they might be missing conservative voters again.

Don't worry, they've got a fix for that. They're going to avoid calling phones and instead just text to known urban/metro area code. That will locate the "missing Republicans."

posted by Ace at 03:57 PM

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