Lancet Study: Masks Did Not Stop Spread of Covid in Schools

We stunted children's verbal, social, and psychological development just so that Sexless Karens could flick their beans about Owning the Cons.

The CDC had found some small effect from masks, but the Lancet finds that by using a larger sample and tracking the spread of covid over a longer period, the effect shown by the CDC vanishes.

"Replicating the CDC study shows similar results; however, incorporating a larger sample and longer period showed no significant relationship between mask mandates and case rates," the study finds. "These results persisted when using regression methods to control for differences across districts. Interpretation: School districts that choose to mandate masks are likely to be systematically different from those that do not in multiple, often unobserved, ways. We failed to establish a relationship between school masking and pediatric cases using the same methods but a larger, more nationally diverse population over a longer interval. Our study demonstrates that observational studies of interventions with small to moderate effect sizes are prone to bias caused by selection and omitted variables. Randomized studies can more reliably inform public health policy."

I think what they're getting at is what I'll call the Start of the Diet Effect: When you first start a diet, you're gung-ho. Not only do you stick to the diet, you probably do a bunch of other good things, like waking up early and going to sleep early.

After a few weeks, you start to backslide.

I think the Lancet study is suggesting that the CDC studied schools that had just recently imposed the mask mandate and so were gaining the benefits of the Start of the Diet Effect. They were probably more observant about washing hands, sending kids home if they coughed, etc.

Question: Did the CDC study deliberately cook the books? Did they pull the plug on the study early the minute they had the result they were looking for, which was the result their Teachers Unions political allies were looking for? Instead of letting the study play out over a longer period of time? Did they truncate it deliberately?

The New York Times' David Leonhardt writes that masks work -- but only in the laboratory.

From the beginning of the pandemic, there has been a paradox involving masks. As Dr. Shira Doron, an epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, puts it, "It is simultaneously true that masks work and mask mandates do not work." To start with the first half of the paradox: Masks reduce the spread of the Covid virus by preventing virus particles from traveling from one person's nose or mouth into the air and infecting another person. Laboratory studies have repeatedly demonstrated the effect.

Given this, you would think that communities where mask-wearing has been more common would have had many fewer Covid infections. But that hasn't been the case.

In U.S. cities where mask use has been more common, Covid has spread at a similar rate as in mask-resistant cities. Mask mandates in schools also seem to have done little to reduce the spread. Hong Kong, despite almost universal mask-wearing, recently endured one of the world's worst Covid outbreaks.

...

The main explanation seems to be that the exceptions often end up mattering more than the rule. The Covid virus is so contagious that it can spread during brief times when people take off their masks, even when a mandate is in place.

Airplane passengers remove their masks to have a drink. Restaurant patrons go maskless as soon as they walk in the door. Schoolchildren let their masks slide down their faces. So do adults: Research by the University of Minnesota suggests that between 25 percent and 30 percent of Americans consistently wear their masks below their nose.

"Even though masks work, getting millions of people to wear them, and wear them consistently and properly, is a far greater challenge," Steven Salzberg, a biostatistician at Johns Hopkins University, has written. Part of the problem, Salzberg explains, is that the most effective masks also tend to be less comfortable. They cover a larger part of a person's face, fit more snugly and restrict the flow of more air particles.

During an acute crisis -- such as the early months of Covid, when masks were one of the few available forms of protection -- strict guidelines can nonetheless make sense. Public health officials can urge people to wear tightfitting, high-quality masks and almost never take them off in public. If the mandate has even a modest benefit, it can be worth it.

But this approach is not sustainable for years on end. Masks hinder communication, fog glasses and can be uncomfortable. There is a reason that children and airline passengers have broken out in applause when told they can take off their masks.

To use a weight-reducing diet as an analogy again: The problem with any diet isn't the plan you write down on a sheet of paper. The problem is compliance. It's hard to stick to a diet, and it's hard to wear a mask per perfect laboratory-specifications for 8-14 hours at work or in transit.

Literally no one does it. Literally no one does it. The Karen Teachers screaming at everyone to mask up least of all, as many of their Instagram photos showing them unmasked at Margarita Night at Chi-Chi's demonstrate.

posted by Ace at 02:27 PM

| Access Comments