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August 21, 2020

Poll: Trump's Job Approval With Hispanics Rises in 2020

Caliente.



With the November presidential election less than 100 days away, what does this mean for Hispanic Americans' views of President Trump?

Even though Hispanic Americans tend to have less favorable views of Trump than Americans in general, surprisingly, their views of Trump have become somewhat more favorable in 2020. Data from the American Values Atlas (AVA) shows that throughout 2019, on average, 28% of Hispanic Americans viewed Trump favorably, compared to 41% of all Americans. In 2020 so far, more than one-third (36%) of Hispanic Americans view Trump favorably, a significant increase from 2019.

Trump's approval rating with Hispanics is, as Trump might say, "Not the best. Really not great."

But his approval rating with Hispanics was worse in 2016, and he won that election, even if the unhinged left and former Republicans-turned-hyperpartisan-liberals won't accept the results of that election.

Democrats need minorities to vote hugely for them. They can't do with split decisions from Hispanics.

Most of Trump's improved ratings come from Protestant Hispanics, which are only 23% of Hispanics. But even among Catholic Hispanics (49% of all Hispanics), his ratings have gone up slightly.

Speaking of polling and voting: a friend floated a very counter-intuitive idea to me.

Many people are abandoning California in droves. The geek vlogger Nerdorotic says there is a 2-3 month wait on renting moving trucks in the San Francisco area; he had to drive 90 minutes outside of town to get a free one.

People are worried -- rightly -- that these people fleeing from blue areas will immediately vote blue and turn their new homes into shitholes indistinguishable from the last shithole they made.

Now, this does seem to have happened in Nevada, where liberal Californians infested the place and turned it first purple and then blue.

And it happened in Virginia.

But my friend thinks in other places, immigration from one state to another may be increasing the conservative vote share in the states immigrated to.

Here's his thoughts:

I think a huge aspect of this election is being completely ignored and no one is attempting to report on it.

I *think* it's a big Trump advantage, but I could be wrong.

We are witnessing one of the largest internal migration events in American history, in an incredibly narrow window of time. To complicate matters, people who move still have their old cellphone numbers associated with their previous area codes, so polling catches very little of this.

There's no way this doesn't have some effect on the election.

If we look at previous migration patterns in recent history, particularly because of political self-sorting, this generally a net benefit to Republicans on the electoral map.

The common belief here is that California -> Texas migration, for example, is "turning Texas blue". It isn't. It's keeping it red. The people that make that move are right-leaning by about a 2-to-1 ratio.

Beto *won* native Texans in his race.

It was the [state-to-state] migration that boosted Republicans. Same thing is happening in Florida, and I think the outmigration from Chicago is going to be a boost to Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan.

I used to really worry about how blue state to red state migration would ruin the political makeup of red states. But it really doesn't. Because the people more motivated to move generally share our politics.

What happens is it leaves reliably blue states even more blue.

Just look at California. You can't even get a Republican on a ballot out there anymore.

...

A really good example of this phenomenon is New Hampshire. The thinking was that all the Massholes were hopping the border and starting to vote blue. That wasn't the case. Mass and CT voters, skewing heavily red, hopped the border and allowed the state to continue to be reasonably competitive. It was the NH natives in the northern counties who started voting more and more Democrat, matching the rest of the region.


Anyway, if this pattern holds for the crazy migration we've seen in the past 6 months, that's probably a big plus for us...

I would bet that an overwhelming majority of those people are ideological allies.
The most common comment I see from [people immigrating to red states] is something along the lines of "I finally have an excuse to escape this stupid state"

I would bet that an overwhelming majority of those people are ideological allies.

This 2013 article buttresses his claim that California-to-Texas migration is generally conservative.

With its economic troubles, California has been losing people in droves. The plurality of those migrants have moved to Texas, as many as 70,000 in 2011 and 60,000 in 2012. Given this influx of new residents, we are fortunate to have at times asked our respondents whether they have moved to Texas from California, and though the actual number of these people is but a small subsample of our surveys, we have enough respondents to make two broad conclusions. First, these newcomers, on average, tend to be conservative. Pooling data from the May 2012 and February 2013 UT/Tribune surveys, we found that 57 percent of these California transplants consider themselves to be conservative, while only 27 percent consider themselves to be liberal (a fair guess as to the margin of error is somewhere around +/- 7 percentage points). Second, these new Texans arenít rushing to find homes in the state's urban centers: 55 percent are heading to the suburbs, the rest evenly dividing themselves between rural and urban locations.

So while some may want to perceive the wave of Californians coming to Texas as part of the broader demographic trends that might eventually turn Texas purple, and then blue, the data collected to date suggest that Perry's pitch appears to be hitting a chord with Californians who wear cowboy boots instead of Birkenstocks.

And this 2018 article says that Beto O'Rourke, shockingly, did win a majority of native Texans, while recent immigrants to the state gave Ted Cruz the win.


A CNN exit poll showed that O'Rourke beat Cruz among native Texans, 51 percent to 48 percent. In contrast, 57 percent of people who had moved to Texas said they voted for Cruz, compared to 42 percent who voted for O'Rourke.


Cruz prevailed Tuesday night, beating his opponent by just 2.6 percentage points. It's the closest Senate race in Texas since 1978.

I don't mind the idea of all conservative/productive people fleeing these shitholes and leaving dying blue husks behind.

It'll make the inevitable division of the country that much easier, and that much more inevitable.

Interesting stuff. I hope he's right.


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posted by Ace at 06:06 PM

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