Minnesota Senate Election Trending Red?

Just the News:

The Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of the Minnesota Senate race toward the Republican candidate, marking one of the only instances of a major Senate race seemingly moving toward the GOP this cycle.

Cook moved the contest from "likely" to "lean" Democratic, as polls show Republican nominee Michelle Tafoya closing in on Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, D-Minn.

So they still think the bizarre evil Karen is ahead, but only by a smidge.

The parties have more accurate polls. And the Democrats have cancelled ads in Minnesota, while the Republicans are buying ad space up.

These tea leaves are hard to read. The Democrats may be ending advertising because they think they have this in the bag.

But... Flanagan can't get over 50% in a very blue state. She's stuck at 46%, which isn't so great for a virtual incumbent.

That raises the question of why the DSCC stopped investing in Flanagan's race. Do Democrats think Flanagan is out in front enough so that they can shift their funds to other races, perhaps betting on potential pickups in Texas, Maine, or Iowa? Or do they look at Flanagan's inability as a quasi-incumbent to get to 50% in a state that's been safely blue for over 20 years as a flashing red alarm about her prospects, and have decided to stop investing in a loss? Dustin Grage told Larry O'Connor earlier this week, before the NRSC bought ad space for Tafoya, that internal polling showed results that differed from the publicly published surveys, including those tracked by RCP.

Of course, we can pose similar questions to the NRSC. What do they see in Minnesota that's prompting them to spend money there rather than, say, Nebraska, Kansas, or Iowa? Ken Paxton's Senate campaign against James Talarico has tons of funding from the Senate Republican caucus already through its Senate Leadership Fund, which put over $30 million into Texas PAC, and Elon Musk (America PAC) and MAGA Inc are spending obscene amounts of money here. Either NRSC sees something in its private polling that suggests Tafoya is close enough for a final push or they want to force Democrats to redirect funds to play defense in Minnesota.

For those of you who say "Poll are for strippers:" Maybe it's worse that that.

A "polling" firm called Wedgewood Polling consistently showed outsized leads for Democrat candidates, including in districts where no one else showed any chance for a Democrat win. Charles Schumer directed some ad spending in these no-win races.

But Wedgewood turns out to have been a completely fake operation.

They're claiming their completely-fake polls were a "social experiment" to expose the lack of rigor in polling and in media poll coverage.

But maybe this is a cover story. Maybe it was just a Democrat op to demoralize Republicans all along.

'We're fake!' Wedgewood Polls announced Tuesday night that they're not a real polling agency but a social experiment. A statement issued by the 'pollsters' says it conducted the so-called experiment 'to demonstrate the vulnerabilities, lack of oversight, and overall low barrier to entry in the modern political polling industry.' Major media outlets like the New York Times and MS NOW have cited Wedgewood Polls. If they were fooled, it shows how easy it is to break into the polling industry and be touted as reliable from the get-go.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 03:20 PM

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