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The Cognitive Dissonance Of The Pro-Ukraine/Anti-Russia Commentariat

There is a default assumption among the vast majority of the media, both the mass-market variety and the supposedly high-minded elites who comment on everything, no matter their expertise.

Ukraine GOOD! Russia BAD!

That sums it up nicely.

And they are half correct! What they seem to miss is that Ukraine is a kleptocratic cesspool of corruption, and their only saving grace is that they were attacked by Putin's Russia, and not by Poland or Belarus, which would have elicited a giant yawn in western capitals. And they also miss the provocation from the West that probably began with Bush senior, when Russia was still the Soviet Union. They were promised that NATO had no plans to expand east, so the buffer between western Europe and mother Russia that the Soviet Union had created wasn't necessary.

Of course that was a lie, and the NATO pressure on Russia's borders, whether real or imagined by a paranoid Putin, increased. George Kennan, who was one of the creators of the West's policy of containment during the Cold War, said:

I think it is the beginning of a new cold war. I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake.

And it obviously was. For better or for worse, a sober foreign policy with Russia must grant some degree of autonomy on its own borders. But there is no rational analysis anymore. Russia is the ultimate evil, and everything it does is tarred by the behavior of Putin, who is absolutely a horrible man and a murderous dictator.

By extension, everything done to combat Russia is just wonderful! That includes whatever Ukraine wants to do, like firing missiles and drones at cities in Russia. Sure, Russia does that too, but let us judge both sides with the same moral compass.

Here is an essay that begins with a discussion of America's coming sanctions against Russia. The website is staffed by seemingly intelligent people who are conventionally well educated...The Ivy League!

Iran and the Russia Sanctions Bill

The Senate passed the Russia sanctions bill earlier this month, and now it is expected to pass the House fairly easily. The bill should be passed, as it will increase pressure on Russia's leadership, economy, defense industrial base, and top foreign enablers.

The bill is not only about Ukraine, but will help deter Russia from attacking NATO countries. Russia has already used sabotage, influence campaigns, espionage, GPS interference, hacking, and assassination on NATO soil. On July 20 and July 21, the Lithuanian and Polish governments warned that Russia is considering new attacks on NATO allies. These could include the use of captured Ukrainian drones in a false flag or hybrid attack. In addition to Poland and Lithuania, all of the Baltic states and Romania are at particularly high risk.

Notice the assumption that Russia is just itching to expand the war? No discussion of why, but it is going to happen..."Because We Said So!"

Of course they must also discuss Russia's failures!

The war has for a long time not been going well for Putin, with over 1.4 million Russian casualties and as many as 625,000 Ukrainian casualties. Given that Putin's goal was to conquer Ukraine as a prize, he fails as he destroys the object of his goal, and his goal destroys Russia. The front is moving at a snail's pace, and the increasing range, sophistication, and lethality of indigenously-produced Ukrainian weapons are wreaking havoc on Russia's energy infrastructure and its strategic military assets, including attack submarines and nuclear-capable bombers.

From purely national security considerations, the Russian military should therefore consider changing tack, whether or not Putin agrees. The Russian army, navy, and air force are being severely degraded when they are needed to defend Russia's east against China. Military exhaustion in Russia, as in Afghanistan in 1989 with a short-lived democratization following two years later, could be the fertile soil from which a new and more stable Russian democracy emerges. With democracy would come trade openings to the West and major gains in GDP growth and general economic prosperity.

So which is it? Russia is expansionist and wants more territory, or Russia is failing and must change their strategy. Oh, and by the way, this writer seems to be calling for Russia's armed forces to stage a coup, because that is what it is called when they disobey their civilian leader. No mention of how that might shake out, or how much uncertainty that would inject into an already chaotic region.

The reality is somewhere in the middle. Yes, Russia and Putin began this border dispute without sufficient provocation, and are absolutely the aggressors. But Ukraine and the West are not blameless. As for Russia's attacks on its neighbors? They are meant as warnings to stay out of the fray, and probably not as precursors of invasions of Poland or Hungary. It is not clear that Russia has the capacity to open another front, particularly against Poland, with its large, well-trained armed forces and natural antipathy for Russia.

If Europe were truly serious about combating Russian expansionism, why have they spent more money on Russian natural gas than they have spent to assist the Ukrainian armed forces?

That seems disingenuous!