Wednesday Morning Rant

There is a former USAF major general named William McCasland. He retired in in the teens. He recently took his .38 revolver and headed out for a hike near his Albuquerque, NM home - and never returned. So far, there is nothing all that unusual about this. A missing persons case - even when it is a former Air Force general - is in fact one of those "local news stories." It is unusual for such a case to be reported on outside of the home market and much more unusual for it be a topic for mainstream outlets like Fox News and Scientific American. Or, for that matter, the FBI, Congress and the White House.

And, in fact, it hasn't. Not on its own. McCasland's recent disappearance, however, is allegedly one incident in a disturbing trend. Per NBC News, there has been much online speculation that McCasland is just the latest incident in a long series of deaths or disappearances of US scientists. The speculation is that US scientists are being targeted, by enemy actors or others of unknown motive. This has since grown into actual investigations to see if there is any there there.

The basis of this speculation is that there are a series of US scientists in nuclear, space and related fields who have mysteriously - and unusually - disappeared or died over the past few years. Specifically, the speculation appears to be around the death or disappearance of at least 10 scientists since 2023. Per Fox News, six of them are dead and four of them are missing:

Michael David Hicks, 59; Frank Maiwald, 61; Nuno Loureiro, 47; Jason Thomas, 45; Amy Eskridge, 34; and Carl Grillmair, 47, all died between 2023 and 2026. Each played a key role in vital scientific research, Fox News Digital previously reported.

The causes of death for Hicks and Maiwald remain unknown. Grillmair was gunned down outside his home on Feb. 16, and Freddy Snyder, 29, was subsequently charged with his murder. Loureiro was also fatally shot at his Massachusetts home. The body of Jason Thomas, an associate director of chemical biology at Novartis, was discovered in Lake Quannapowitt, Mass., three months after he was last seen walking from his home late at night. Eskridge, a Huntsville, Alabama--based researcher, died June 11, 2022, from a self-inflicted gunshot wound.

Monica Reza, 60; Melissa Casias, 53; Anthony Chavez, 79; Steven Garcia, 48; and retired Air Force Maj. Gen. William Neil McCasland, 68, were all reported missing between 2023 and 2026. All the disappearances occurred under suspicious circumstances.

This sounds quite damning, but it does make me wonder. This is ten people, over about three years, in a country of over 300 million people. At the scale of "the country" or even the relatively rarefied group of "important scientists," is this rate of murder, suicide, unknown death or disappearance unusual? I have no idea. I wouldn't guess that it is. Tragic for their families, yes - but nationally important? I don't know. Congress, however has launched an investigation:

On Sunday, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., warned that "something sinister" could be involved.

"We've put a notice out to the Department of War, the FBI, NASA, and the Department of Energy. We want to know everything they know about what happened with these scientists, because those four agencies were predominantly the ones these 11 individuals were affiliated with," he said during an appearance on "Fox & Friends Weekend." "We want to try to piece this together."

"In light of the recent and legitimate questions about these troubling cases, and President Trump's commitment to the truth, the White House is actively working with all relevant agencies and the FBI to holistically review all of the cases together and identify any potential patterns," Karoline Leavitt later wrote on social media.

NASA has indicated that they see no pattern or national security threat, but are cooperating with the investigation. Secretary Wright told Fox News during an interview about Iran that the Department of Energy is also doing its own investigation to determine if there is any common thread connecting the DOE scientists on the list.

It seems unlikely to me that this is evidence of a coordinated conspiracy to abduct or murder current and former US scientists. I suspect this is much more likely to be an example of "anything can look like a trend if you look hard enough and broadly enough for long enough." Time may, perhaps, tell.

posted by Joe Mannix at 11:00 AM

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