The Morning Rant: Broken Windows Theory

Great cities fail for reasons that seem unimportant, but in retrospect are monumental. The 1982 "Broken Windows Theory" of James Q. Wilson and George Kelling has been mocked and minimized by the rulers of the very cities whose decline can be linked to it, but the correlation is undeniable.

It is simple and obvious; Visible signs of disorder such as litter, graffiti, minor traffic infractions, turnstile-jumping, public drinking, and a thousand other seemingly trivial violations of the basic rules of human conduct, lead to the inescapable conclusion that no one is in charge...that the social order is eroding.

The cascade is clear: law-abiding people begin to avoid those areas, informal social control decreases, those areas become more attractive to offenders, serious crime increases, and the cycle deepens and spreads.

New York City is a perfect example of this. Beginning in the 1960s with four consecutive Democrat mayors, the city descended into chaos. Murder rates tripled, armed robbery rates quadrupled, abandoned buildings became ubiquitous. The city was covered in litter and graffiti, with burned and abandoned cars littering the streets and highways.

But 30 years of violence and decay ended abruptly with the election of Rudy Giuliani as mayor in 1994. His fix was simple. Zero tolerance for crime, no matter how trivial. "Stop And Frisk" became the norm, littering was taken seriously, subway cars were cleaned of graffiti, traffic laws were enforced, turnstile jumping became a crime again, and the hundreds of seemingly trivial, seemingly victimless crimes were taken seriously.

The result was a new golden age for New York City. And the next mayor continued many of Giuliani's policies, so for 20 years the city was an invigorated and vibrant place. But as usual, all good things must come to an end, and the changing demographics of NYC allowed the election of progressive Democrat mayors who carefully gutted the policies that had protected NYC from itself! And as fast as Giuliani repaired the damage from the previous series of Democrats, de Blasio and Adams allowed it to return. And the newest mayor will add fanatical Islamist policies to his destructive progressivism that rewards criminality.

But this time there is no core of traditional middle class New Yorkers who will push back against the decay. The city has become a city of immigrants...both legal and illegal...who have no memory of New York City's glory. They have brought their home countries' sensibilities and cultural mores, and they do not include those things that can again save New York City.

So why Big Ben adorned with graffiti? I have been to London perhaps 20 times in the past 10 years, and I see the exact same thing happening, albeit slower. Graffiti in London? Yes. Loud and antisocial behavior on the Tube? Yes. Spitting in the streets? Yes. Litter and mess and aggressive driving and street crime and all of the things that will speed the decay in a vicious feedback loop. It's here, and shows no signs of changing.

London also has a generation's head start on the Islamist policies, with a Muslim mayor and a huge Muslim population that is becoming restive, aggressive, and demanding that London bends to it.

And that will be coming to NYC soon

[Crossposted at CutJibNewsletter and X/Twitter]. If you folks who are on X/Twitter would follow us it would be much appreciated!

posted by CBD at 11:00 AM

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