Schmolls and Rumors of Schmolls

Before you complain: Just consider, I'm sick. Every hour since I've woken up I've gotten worse chills and cold sweats.

I think I just picked up Sudden Covid. Is that a thing?

I'm playing injured over heah, coach.

So a schmoll post is about all I'm physically capable of.

This isn't a schmoll per se but an indicator of what Democrats' internal schmolls are showing: Barack Obama is jumping into the Virginia gubernatorial race to save CIA Sleeper Agent Abigail Spanberger.

If you remember, Obama jumped in at the last minute to save Clinton Crony and illegal donor Terry MacAuliffe from the threat posed by Glenn Youngkin.

That didn't work out for them.

Same tired message. Same tired messenger. Same circumstances. Same ... desperation.

And maybe the same result? Tough to say, as Youngkin was in a better polling position than Earle-Sears is at the moment. However, momentum has begun to shift, and Democrats know it. And Obama himself is not the same figure as four years ago, when the post-January 6 political climate was much different. Obama and his entire foreign-policy team just got depantsed in Gaza, and much of his domestic policy team -- which also helped run the White House during the Biden Regency -- has been discredited in Donald Trump's successes in closing the borders, enforcing law, and accountability for lawfare waged by Obama's allies.

So what are their schmolls showing? I dunno, but this new schmoll shows the Democrats fading fast:

InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022

NEW VIRGINIA POLL

GOV
🟦 Spanberger: 47.5%
🟥 Earle-Sears 45.3%
🟨 Charles: 0.8%
⬜ Not sure: 6.4%
--
AG
🟥 Jason Miyares: 49.5%
🟦 Jay Jones: 44.6%
⬜ Not sure: 5.9%
--
LG
🟦 Ghazala Hashmi: 46.2%
🟥 John Reid: 46.1%
⬜ Not sure: 7.7%

And Democrats' hopes of winning back the House are fading.

Democrats' odds of taking the House, even without the Supreme Court taking away their illegal racist advantage, continue to fall.

Kalshi is a federally regulated financial exchange and prediction market platform that allows users to buy and sell "event contracts" tied to the outcomes of real-world events. Essentially, a wagering site where you can cash in on predictions of future events.

One such event, whether or not Democrats or Republicans will have control of the House after the 2026 midterms, has seen quite a bit of action. The latest action should have Democrats feeling a little uneasy.

The resistance party, according to Kalshi, had an 83.8 percent chance of gaining control of the House on April 11th, while the GOP's chance of maintaining control stood at just 16.3 percent. Those were respective highs and lows for each party at the time.

Since then, the downward slope for the Democrats has been pretty pronounced on their charts. As of today, the Democratic odds have dropped to 62.6 percent--a 21.2 percentage point drop.

CNN's highly excitable poll analyst Harry Enten points out that Democrats have a penny-ante three point lead. Given that most polling companies (deliberately?) oversample Democrats, I'd say they have no lead at all.

"You look back in 2017, you saw that the Democrats had leaped up to an eight-point advantage. I remember covering this. I remember a lot of folks, including myself saying, you know what? Republicans look pretty decent right now, in terms of the fact that they had the House, they had the Senate, they had the presidency, but things were likely going to flip," he added. "And I was looking for the same signs this year. The bottom line is, it hasn't happened, Kate Bolduan, it hasn't happened. Democrats have stayed basically steady, they have fallen off the pace." ...

"If both sides max out, we're probably looking at a GOP gain of plus seven House seats," he said, noting that statistic does not factor the Supreme Court's present consideration of the Voting Rights Act, which could end the use of race to draw congressional districts.

"If you add that in, then you could be looking about adding 10, 12, 15, 17 on top of this seven seats ... It's a different new landscape," Enten said. "And we're not quite sure how much Democrats will have to be ahead in the national House vote in order to gain control."

posted by Ace at 04:30 PM

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