The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition

India buys lots of Russian oil, and Russia uses that income to fund its war in Ukraine. They now buy about 1,750,000 barrels/day (up sharply since the Ukraine war began), and that is a lot of income for Russia, even assuming a discount and falling oil prices. Supposedly they resell some of it and profit from that discount.

It is clear that President Trump is growing frustrated with the slow pace of the negotiations over the Ukraine war, and pressing Russian allies with concrete financial penalties will, I guess, further isolate Russia.

Trump Raises India Tariffs to 50 Percent Over Russian Oil Imports

Trump, writing in an Aug. 6 executive order, said India’s government is “currently directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil.”

“Accordingly, and as consistent with applicable law, articles of India imported into the customs territory of the United States shall be subject to an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 25 percent,” the executive order states.

Last week, the president announced a 25 percent tariff against India, one of the largest U.S. trading partners. Additionally, India would face another penalty over its purchases of Russian energy and military equipment.

Of course China buys even more Russian oil, and even turkey buys a large amount. So why is President Trump going after India, and not Turkey. Obviously he has already significantly adjusted tariffs on Chinese products. Or even the EU, which imports refined products from India, in a transparent attempt to evade sanctions on Russia.

Yeah...that sounds nutty, but such is the hypocrisy of Europe.

How much Russian oil does India buy?

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India became the biggest buyer of Russian crude due to the diversion of traditional supplies to Europe, which officials in New Delhi said was a “necessity compelled by global market situation”.

In that first year, India imported as much as two million barrels a day of Russian oil, accounting for roughly 2 per cent of global supply. China and Turkey were the other major buyers.

In 2023, at the same time as India’s import of Russian crude oil more than doubled year-on-year, its export of refined crude to the EU grew to a record level. [bolding mine]

Increasing the tariffs on India makes sense, but it is clearly only part of the picture, and risks driving India away from America and into the waiting arms of China.

India has already said that they would continue to buy Russian oil, but there are real economic repercussions, which suggests that India will ask for more of a discount from Russia. Putin's intransigence with respect to the Trump-driven negotiations are driving these economic blows, and while Russia's economy was doing okay, recently it has shown significant slowing. Can Putin weather this storm, or will he be forced to be more accommodating at the ceasefire talks?

Who knows? But the negotiations are unlike most others, because Russia is a nuclear power, and Putin has already threatened, through his subordinates, to use tactical nuclear weapons.

That's all the more reason to keep our troops out, and to allow Europe to take the lead in supplying Ukraine.

Or...a pox on all of their houses!

[Crossposted at CutJibNewsletter and X/Twitter] And the Apple and Spotify feeds for CJN's podcast should be working!

posted by CBD at 11:00 AM

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