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April 22, 2025
Chinese Clothing Mega-Vendor Shein Shuts Down Its FactoriesThe tariffs are biting China worse than they're biting us. We're in a tough period. Business does not like uncertainty. There are thousands of US businesses that rely on Chinese factories to make their products. These business could invest a lot of money into building US factories (or factories in Mexico or something), but they don't know when China will cave, or Trump will make a deal with them. If they invest that money in new factories -- it could be wiped out when Chinese factories are back on-line. So for now, they're in limbo. They don't know what to do. They can't invest until they know what the future rules will be. That doesn't mean I object to Trump's tariffs. Trump is attempting to undo 40 years of the US moving almost all of its manufacturing to a hostile foreign communist regime that every once in a while looses a pandemic on the world. There are going to be dislocations. There is almost certainly going to be a recession. If China goes into a recession, the world will do the same soon after. I think it's a fight that must be fought... but boy oh boy am I hoping that China comes to the bargaining table sooner rather than later. Xi will lose his job if China is plunged into a deep recession with huge unemployment. But... how long will that take? Let's hope this is enough to get Xi to move. Factories supplying Chinese fast-fashion giant Shein have ground to a halt in southern China, as President Donald Trump's new tariffs and closure of the "de minimis" loophole upend Beijing's retail export model. With the tariff policy set to take effect on May 2, dozens of garment workshops in Guangzhou's Panyu district -- dubbed "Shein Village" -- have gone idle, marking a major shift in the global fast-fashion supply chain. The "de minimis" loophole exempted products whose individual-sale cost was under a certain level from any tariffs, even if the factory making those products was exporting billions of dollars worth of them to America. Trump ended that exemption. That really bites into China, which exports trillions of dollars of crap into the US but a lot of it is cheap on a by-unit basis. Key Details: In some positive tariff war news: Swiss drug manufacturer Roche is investing $50 billion in US manufacturing to avoid tariffs. Roche announced Tuesday it will pour $50 billion into the U.S. over the next five years, creating more than 12,000 jobs and expanding domestic manufacturing. The move comes as President Donald Trump moves to revoke tariff exemptions for foreign pharmaceutical products. From Real Clear Energy: Japan can negotiate its way out of tariffs by agreeing to buy more energy from the US, instead of China. The global economy has been jolted by a new round of Trump tariffs. The U.S. has proposed a flat 10% import tariff, along with an additional "reciprocal tariff" pegged to bilateral trade imbalances. For Japan, this would result in an effective cumulative tariff of 34%. While implementation of the reciprocal tariff has been delayed for 90 days, the underlying tensions remain unresolved. Not only does Trump risk a recession-- again, I think this fight must be had, but we're on the edge of a recession -- but also, that recession will disproportionately affect business owners... also known as "Republican leaners." That's politically dangerous. So I hope that Trump can execute the Michael Scott Negotiating Gambit against Xi quickly. | Recent Comments
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