Mandate
[Dave in Fla]

A presidential candidate in the United States has not won a mandate since Ronald Reagan in 1984. There have been significant wins by candidates, notably Obama in 2008. But those wins all came with deep divisions within the electorate, and no national consensus on the direction of the country.

While we are enjoying watching TikTok videos of liberals having mental breakdowns, we may lose sight of the fact that Trump didn't just win. He won with a resounding mandate from the electorate. The people have spoken and have given the green light for Republicans to implement HIS agenda, and they expect them to keep that promise.

I want to give credit to Rich Baris and Sean Parnell for many of these thoughts, and the impetus to look into some of these numbers. Sean has an excellent show on Rumble called Battleground Live, and Rich joins him every Wednesday on the show. You should absolutely check it out, it is one of the best hours of my week.

Political coalitions are built with the intent of getting an election to 50%+1 vote. Rarely do campaigns spend a lot of time worrying about broad expansion of their base. I talked about this on the podcast; in 2012 the Obama coalition decided to jettison the white working class, because they believed they could get more votes through racial division. The Harris campaign was a poster child for this philosophy, calling half the country nazis and garbage, just to find a way to eke out that 50+1.

But the Trump victory is different, and do not underestimate it because it is only 52% and only 312 electoral votes. When you dive into the underlying numbers, you see an amazing pattern.

Trump built his coalition by adding votes in EVERY DEMOGRAPHIC.

This is unheard of. When you appeal to the upper middle class with your message, you usually will turn off a different demographic, like lower income working class. Romney was a great example of this with his 47% comment.

But Trump was different.

Trump increased his Jewish vote in Michigan by 20%

Trump ALSO WON Dearborn and Dearborn Heights, the densest Arab American community in the state. He didn't just increase his margin; he outright won the cities.

Trump WON the Hispanic vote in Michigan 60-40.

Trump won working class Monroe County at 64%, but he also increased vote share in wealthy Oakland County by 5%.

There is a video of John King showing a stunned Jake Tapper a map of the nation where they highlighted every county where Harris increased support over Biden. The map was blank. Trump increased or maintained his 2020 levels in every county in the nation in their exit polls.

The follow graphic is from the New York Times, showing the change in voting behavior in every county in the United States. This is the 90% result, since the west coast is still compiling results. While there are a few pockets of blue, it shows that Trump built support in every state in the nation. He cut the Democrat lead to 10 points in New York and 7 points in New Jersey.

posted by Open Blogger at 04:07 PM

| Access Comments