Go Vote [by Dave in Fla]

It is finally election day, and it is your opportunity to quit complaining about the state of our country and do something about it.

This is the first time that Trump has come into election day with a lead in the RCP average, and a predicted Electoral Vote win by RCP. These predictions are based on polling data, which is the MOST bearish on Trump's chances going into the election.

Nate Cohn at the New York Times admitted in their final poll (which is Trump +1 nationally) that there is a chance for a polling miss, because they have been unable to poll white male Republicans. This has been a massive problem for the polls this year and has led to serious response bias. They have all had problems reaching the most Trump leaning demographics, especially the working class. Democrat samples are overpopulated with educated suburban liberals and are missing union steel workers.

But we have more data just than polls to show how the election is shaping up. Early voting is mostly done, and the Republicans are entering election day with advantages they have never had before:

- Florida has moved from a 115K Democrat advantage in 2020 to an 845K Republican advantage
- The Pennsylvania Democrat firewall is 700K votes less than in 2020
- In North Carolina the GOP holds an advantage for the first time ever, due to reduced Black turnout
- In Nevada the traditional Democrat firewall is gone, and it now a 43K Republican firewall
- In Iowa GOP registration has increased in all 99 counties
- In Arizona the Republicans hold a 196K lead in early vote, where they were behind in 2020 and 2022

Everywhere the theme is the same, Republicans have equaled their 2020 early vote share, with slight increases. But Democrat early votes are missing. In Florida, the Democrat vote is down 24% from 2020.

Where. Are. The. Democrat. Voters.

When you couple this with nationwide Republican increases in voter registration, the result is that there is a lot more room for Republicans to perform today. That is just the math.

For Kamala to win, a combination of four things must occur:
1) Democrats must surge to the polls on election day (something they haven't done since 2012)
2) A sizable number of Republicans must vote for Harris
3) A large majority of Independents must vote for Harris
4) Republican turnout must be suppressed through psyops, election day interference, and ballot cheating

I'll add that 2 and 3 are not supported by any polling this year. They are all showing Trump wins both the crossover vote and independents, the difference is only by how much.

My personal prediction remains 314 EVs, and CBD buying me a bottle of bourbon. Regarding the Senate and the House, Republicans should end up with control of both chambers. In the House there are only about 20 competitive districts, most of them held currently by Democrats. In the Senate, the GOP will pick up West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. The other 6 competitive races are driven by Trump's coat tails. The candidates will run from 0-3 points behind Trump. For example, if Trump wins Arizona by 5, Lake should win. I give the odds in AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, and VA to be about 50/50 right now, and it all depends on turnout and cheating.

Bottom line is that we are in a very good position, but we must vote. Everything depends on Election Day turnout.

If you get in line, don't leave the line until you have cast your ballot, even if they make you wait 6 hours in Pennsylvania. And if you see something odd, record it and report it. The RNC has hot lines set up throughout the day to get lawyers to polls to deal with reported cheating.

Go vote.

posted by Open Blogger at 10:55 AM

| Access Comments