NBC Poll: Trump Leads Nationally 48-46%; Leads the Battleground States 48-47%; Now Has Higher Favorability Ratings Than Harris

Trump's net favorability isn't great, but it's better than he's ever had: He's at -6, net, favorable minus unfavorable. 42% favorable, 48% unfavorable.

But Harris is at -10. She's at only 39% favorable, 49% unfavorable.

That said: A guy on Twitter was being a real rag. He was complaining about Republicans showing irrational exuberance, which will lead to Republicans thinking they've got it in the bag and not doing much of anything to help get out the vote. Or even vote themselves.

We did our endzone dancing before we actually put the ball in the endzone in 2022. Good thing we got our endzone dancing in early, because we never scored.

He makes a good point and I hope everyone realizes that if this is even close, they will steal it. They will only not steal it if Trump's victory is so clear that it would require cheating on such a level that it could not be disguised. The Democrat vote-counters in Atlanta will only not discover thousands and thousands of new votes at 4am if they know that the cheating will be obvious and that they will face state police raids and prosecutions if they dare it.

So take this not a good news but merely animating news. If you're discouraged, don't be. Your vote will count, even if it's only to pad the margin in a state Trump wins. Trump just pulled ahead in Miami-Dade in the early vote (assuming Republicans vote for Trump and Democrats vote for Harris). Yes, Miami, a liberal blue city.

If you're a Republican in safe Florida, it is still imperative to vote, to canvass, to knock on doors, to join call centers, to volunteer to bring voters to the polls because a huge, say, 18 point victory will make it extremely suspicious if Georgia "goes for Harris" only because more Democrat voters were counted in Fulton County than the actual number of voters living in Fulton County.

If you're a Republican in New Mexico, do not assume the state is going to the Democrats and sit on your ass. There's a "shock" poll -- though I'm not all that shock -- that New Mexico is now gettable for Trump.

It's difficult to believe the former President Donald Trump can win New Mexico, but a newly released poll by KA Consulting claims the Republican ticket is only down three percentage points against Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.

KA Consulting's metrics claim a much closer race than the symphony of major pollsters, all of whom have Harris comfortably carrying the Southwestern state. KA Consulting polled 612 likely voters between October 16 and 18 and cited a recent NBC poll that found Trump's position strengthening among Hispanics as evidence that Trump can pull off a shocking upset in the Sun Belt. Nearly half of the state's population identifies as Hispanic, and the politics of a border state cannot be discounted during an election cycle where illegal immigration has dominated policy discussions.

Bear in mind that Kamala Harris's only has a couple of paths to victory, by which I mean, states she could conceivably win to get her to just slightly above 269 electoral votes. If she loses a "safe" state like New Mexico, she has no chance. None.

If she loses New Mexico, she has to make that up by flipping a solid Trump state like, say, Missouri. That's impossible.

Furthermore, a Trump win in New Mexico or even a very narrow loss would make the Sudden Discovery of tens of thousand of Harris ballots in Philadelphia or Madison look like a crime.

They will only not cheat if they know their cheating will be punished with jail time, and they will only know that if they see that it is simply Too Big to Steal.

There is good news all over, but it must be taken as merely a call to action, not a call to inaction. So many people have changed their party registration from D to Independent or D to Republican that the Democrat registration advantage in PA has gone from a million voter advantage for Democrats to less than 300,000.

The Wall Street Journal poll confirms a wave for Trump:

InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022

National poll by Wall Street Journal

2-WAY
Trump: 49%
Harris: 46%

Last poll (9/28 ) - Harris +1
----
FULL FIELD
Trump: 47%
Harris: 45%

Last poll - Harris +2
----
October 19-22 | N=1,500

Polls are bullshit, only votes count: But these polls demonstrate that your votes will count, if we cast enough of them.

Townhall's Rebecca Downs quotes from the (paywalled) WSJ:

Views of Harris have turned more negative since August, when equal shares of voters viewed her favorably and unfavorably. Now, the unfavorable views are dominant by 8 percentage points, 53% to 45%. Moreover, voters give Harris her worst job rating as vice president in the three times the Journal has asked about it since July, with 42% approving and 54% disapproving of her performance.

By contrast, views of Trump have turned rosier. Voters recall his time as president more positively than at any point in this election cycle, with 52% approving and 48% disapproving of his performance in office--a 4-point positive job rating that contrasts with the 12-point negative rating for Harris.

Real Clear Politics has Harris up 0.2 nationally, but that is only due to the absurdly-skewed Democrat Morning Consult "poll," which isn't even poll (they pay a chosen panel to keep calling them). That poll has it Harris +4, which is preposterous, and is the only thing keeping Harris above water in the average.

Also, of course: Harris needs to win nationally by 3% to have a 50/50 chance of winning in the electoral college. A tied national vote is a big Trump electoral drubbing.

But all of this depends on us not allowing the Democrat/Media Regime to demoralize us into thinking we are already defeated before the contest is even run, propandizing us into believing we will lose because we are losers and the Democrats are strong and will crush us because we are weak and cowardly.

I don't think we are -- but if we lose this, we will be proven to be paper tigers who talk a lot but then when it's time to do a simple ten-minute task -- or a twenty minute task if you have to register still -- we decide we'd rather lose and be dominated by remorseless authoritarians who do, in fact, plan to imprison us for resisting their efforts to take America into the third world.

Gallup's numbers on Trump's favorability are even better: According to Gallup, Trump is at 50% majority favorability for the first time in his entire political career.

Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh

#NEW NATIONAL poll - favorable/unfavorable rating

Trump: 50%-48% (+2)
Harris: 48%-50% (-2)

*First election Trump has entered with a positive favorability rating

Gallup | 10/22

It's nice to have an early lead, as Trump did with Biden.

It's better to have a late lead, as Trump does now.

More:

David D. Chapman @davidchapman141 4h New Hampshire early voting. 13 days to go. 2020 vs 2024

2020
74,295 (+45,267)
29,028

2024
14,976 (+2,745)
12,231

Holy Moly!

Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh 7h
OH MY GOD.

PENNSYLVANIA MAIL-IN UPDATE:

Republicans out-requested ballots almost TWO-TO-ONE.

Republican: +19,300
Democratic: +10,100

GOP also gained nearly 2 points on RETURNS in one day...

Posted by: andycanuck (hovnC)

Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh 8h

BREAKING: North Carolina Republicans just took the lead in the MAIL-IN + early voting.

Republicans: 686,624
Democrats: 683,301
Others: 638,268

Data: @MichaelPruser

Posted by: andycanuck

As Alec Baldwin's character said in Glengarry Glenn Ross: " They're sitting out there waiting to give you their money. Are you gonna take it? Are you man enough to take it?!"

A friend said to me, "I don't want to start celebrating early, but you can feel the tide turning in real time."

Again, I do not want to encourage inaction, but action.

Let's remember what this is about: The feeling of outright out-of-body elation we felt in 2016, and avoiding the feeling of disorientation and dread we felt in 2020 and 2022.

There's going to be a Coffin Dance for one half of the country or the other.

I say we make sure we're the ones carrying the coffins, not the ones carried in them.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 04:42 PM

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