THE MORNING RANT: Periodic Update on the EV Follies [6/28/2024]

It’s been awhile since I’ve done one of these EV roundups, so there is a lot to cover. I’ll try to keep each item short, but I do want to start with a few quick things regarding the political battle against EV mandates…

“Donald Trump has pledged to scrap President Biden’s policies on electric vehicles and wind energy, as well as other initiatives opposed by the fossil fuel industry” [WaPo – 5/09/2024]

I believe Trump when he says he will scrap Biden’s EV mandates. (If a “polite” and “respectable” Republican such as Romney/McCain/Ryan/Bush said this, I would assume I am being lied to.) The moment Trump takes office in January 2025, I’ll use whatever forum I have to push him and his administration to deliver on this promise.

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin is proving his conservative bona fides with this announcement, decoupling Virginia from California’s EV mandates:

“Youngkin says Virginia will not adopt California electric vehicle standard” [The Hill – 06/05/2024]

“Once again, Virginia is declaring independence – this time from a misguided electric vehicle mandate imposed by unelected leaders nearly 3,000 miles away from the Commonwealth,” Youngkin said in a statement. “The idea that government should tell people what kind of car they can or can’t purchase is fundamentally wrong. Virginians deserve the freedom to choose which vehicles best fit the needs of their families and businesses. The law is clear, and I am proud to announce Virginians will no longer be forced to live under this out-of-touch policy.”

This is so important beyond the state of Virginia, as those of us who live in free states cannot let the eco-communists in California control and regulate major industries on behalf of the entire country.

Virginia’s Democratic Senate Leader, Scott Surovell, protested that not allowing the state of California to establish laws and regulations for the state of Virginia is ”reckless, illegal, and unconstitutional.” Leftists think that freedom-suppressing tyranny is more palatable so long as it is outsourced to a government that the people can’t vote against.

Blue on Blue Crime – EV Edition

This must be a conundrum for pro-crime Democrats, as their beloved street criminals are now targeting EV charging stations, leaving urban EV drivers in a bind when it comes to finding a facility to charge their cars.

Thefts of charging cables pose yet another obstacle to appeal of electric vehicles [AP – 6/12/2024]

Thieves have been targeting EV charging stations, intent on stealing the cables, which contain copper wiring. The price of copper is near a record high on global markets, which means criminals stand to collect rising sums of cash from selling the material.

If the criminals are hungry and need to feed their families, who can complain about them destroying EV chargers to get the valuable copper wire?

The stolen cables often disable entire stations, forcing EV owners on the road to search desperately for a working charger. For the owners, the predicament can be exasperating and stressful.

I am strongly opposed to theft and vandalism, but in areas where crime is celebrated and not prosecuted, then I’d much prefer EV charging stations be the criminals’ target than the establishments run by mom and pop shop-owners.

GM Will Continue to be Caught off Guard by “Unexpected” Consumer Rejection of EVs

Other than the date on the calendar, there is not much difference between the “Five Year Plans” published by Soviet commissars in days gone by and the comically preposterous projections from legacy automakers about their EV sales. They are projections that will not be met and cannot be met, yet auto executives keep producing these absurd forecasts.

“GM trims 2024 EV forecast amid slower-than-expected demand” [CNBC – 6/11/2024]

No. EV sales are not slower than I expected. I expected widespread consumer rejection. It was inevitable except to those for whom purchasing an EV is a sacrament required by their devotion to the Sustainable Organic Church of the Carbon Apocalypse.

And guess what. EV sales are going to fall way short of the newly adjusted “expectations” of General Motors’ executives.

GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said the company now expects production of 200,000 to 250,000 EVs this year, down from a previously announced range of 200,000 to 300,000.

That is absurd. GM sold a whopping 16,425 EVs in the first quarter of 2024. That annualizes to 65,700 per year, and the early adopters already have their EVs or drive Teslas.

There are going to be stories in 2025 about how surprised GM is that EV sales continue to fall short of their expectation of 200,000 per year. It is a disgrace to that once great company that it is publishing projections that are unattainable.

Boom Goes the EV

It wouldn’t be an EV roundup without some exploding lithium batteries and EV conflagrations.

“Exploding batteries spark deadly S. Korea factory fire” [BBC- 6/24/2024]

Very deadly in fact. 22 people died. And yes, these were lithium batteries.

A massive factory fire that began after several lithium batteries exploded has killed at least 22 people in South Korea.

"Most of the bodies are badly burned so it will take some time to identify each one," Mr. Kim said, according to news agency AFP.

The Aricell factory housed an estimated 35,000 battery cells on its second floor, where the batteries were inspected and packaged, with more stored elsewhere. Mr Kim said the fire began when a series of battery cells exploded, though it remains unclear what triggered the initial explosions.

Another sad story…

“Federal agency investigates fiery EV crash that killed California family” [LA Times – 5/03/2024]

A Vietnamese-manufactured electric vehicle is now under review by federal investigators after one of its models was involved in a fiery crash that killed a Pleasanton, Calif., family of four. Tarun George and his wife, Rincy George, both 41, and sons Rowan, 13, and Aaron, 9, died when their VinFast VF 8 crashed April 24.

Investigators later discovered that the car collided with a pole and then a tree, and that it caught fire immediately after the collisions. When the department was clearing the scene that night, the car reportedly reignited a few times, according to KABC-TV.

When I joke about VinFast being part of my EV Death Pool, I’m joking about when VinFast’s EV venture in the US will fail, not about how it is a device that inflicts a fiery death in crashes.

Wrecks are inevitable for motor vehicles, and the death of the George family is tragic. The deaths of those children were probably avoidable had the vehicle not been an EV. In addition, it just seems selfish of EV owners that they would put the lives of first responders in danger with vehicles that keep re-igniting while emergency workers are trying to save lives and clear the damage.

Our very own co-blogger, Mr. CBD, was caught in a traffic jam in New Jersey due to an inferno involving a vehicle carrier. CBD sent me this picture, which I shared with Iowahawk to see if he could identify any of the vehicle carcasses. Iowahawk politely demurred, but several of his readers identified the vehicle carcass at top right as being a Tesla Model 3. That’s what it looks like to me, but I cannot state that with absolute certainty given its condition.

The EV Manufacturer Death Pool

Speaking of the EV Death Pool…

As I predicted last month, Fisker was the next EV manufacturer to go out of business. It just filed bankruptcy and will be liquidated.

Fisker went public in late 2020 in a merger with a blank-check firm, valuing it at $2.9 billion and infusing its balance sheet with more than $1 billion in cash. The listing was a second chance for its Danish CEO and founder to build an auto business after his first venture, Fisker Automotive, filed for bankruptcy in 2013, falling victim to the 2008 financial crisis and a battery failure in the Karma hybrid sedan that had led to a substantial recall.

I now rate Lucid as the most likely EV manufacturer to fail next. But this news might just accelerate Rivian’s journey to its almost inevitable bankruptcy:

“Rivian R1T Owners Report Wheels Falling Off After Service” [CarScoops – 6/23/2024]

They are reporting wheels that fall off after what sounds like routine maintenance or simple service repairs. The problem appears to have a trail leading back to 2022. Recently, one Rivian R1T owner posted online about their front passenger wheel. According to user StrangeExchange86, it “fell off” after Rivian serviced the tonneau cover “and a few other things.” The driver went over some train tracks, heard something strange, and ended up with a wheel that looks like it’s doing its best Lightning McQueen impression. Dig a little deeper into his Reddit post and you’ll find others reporting similar, if not scarier stories with the same issue.

Glass half-empty: “My Rivian’s wheels keep falling off.”

Glass half-full: “My Rivian didn’t burst into flames when its wheels fell off.”

But wait – breaking news…

“Volkswagen to Invest Up to $5 Billion Into EV Maker Rivian” [WSJ – 6/25/2024]

Volkswagen Group is investing $1 billion in electric-pickup maker Rivian Automotive with plans to spend up to $5 billion as part of a software-development partnership.

What are VW’s executives thinking? Well, they clearly aren’t thinking. It was just a few years ago that VW thought it wise to invest money in a joint venture with…Fisker.

“Volkswagen to Partner With Fisker, Enable Use of MEB Platform” [Yahoo-UK – 7/15/2020]

So what is Rivian’s motivation in partnering with VW? Above all else, it desperately needs cash. Beyond that, it has a growing list of failed partnerships and is running out of potential mates. Amazon, Ford, and Mercedes have already experienced the perils of trying to partner up with Rivian.

That cartoon above ought to also include the state of Georgia, whose gullible “Republican” governor, Brian Kemp, threw over a billion dollars worth of tax money and incentives at Rivian for a plant that is not going to be built.

Buyer’s Remorse – EV Edition

“Almost half of U.S. electric car owners want to switch back to gas-powered cars, survey shows” [Washington Times – 6/22/2/2024]

This has been well covered, but in case you missed it, a report from McKinsey & Company shows the depth of dissatisfaction among EV buyers, with about half wanting to go back to gasoline powered cars.

Among the owners surveyed who are planning to switch back, 35% cited the lack of charging infrastructure, 34% said the costs were too high, 32% said planning long driving trips was too difficult, 24% said they could not currently charge at home, 21% said worrying about charging was too stressful and 13% said they did not enjoy how the cars felt while driving.

Related…

“Electric car sales tumble across Europe as demand plummets in Germany” [The Telegraph – 6/20/2024]

Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) plunged across Europe last month, fuelled by a sharp drop-off in demand in Germany. Official figures show that sales for new EVs fell by 30pc in Germany last month, which led to a broader fall of 12.5pc across the Continent.

I presume that a great many Europeans who bought their first EV have vowed to never buy another EV, and are going back to gasoline powered cars.

What Will It Take to Put You in This Rapidly Depreciating EV Today?

“Used EV price crash keeps getting deeper with ‘premium’ brand idea history” [CNBC – 6/16/2024]

“It’s clear used car shoppers will no longer pay a premium for electric vehicles,” iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer stated in an iSeeCars report published last week. Electric power is now a detractor in the consumer’s mind, with EVs “less desirable” and therefore less valuable than traditional cars, he said.

There is a lot going on to drive consumers away from EVs, but the short lifespan of an EV makes a functioning used market almost impossible. An EV has a lifespan of perhaps 10 years before it needs to be scrapped due to the $10k+ cost of replacing its battery. A 6-year-old Toyota has a long life in front of it, whereas a 6-year old Tesla is rapidly depreciating to a value of $0. That negatively affects demand and pricing at each stage of the life cycle of an EV.

Consider this headline from NBC last month: “Average U.S. vehicle age hits record 12.6 years as high prices force people to keep them longer”

Half of the US auto fleet is older than the expected lifespan of a typical EV.

Also, as an EV ages and the range of its battery decreases. Whatever range anxiety new EV buyers might have, it’s worse for those with aging EVs. This is a great analogy:

“Would you buy a car with a shrinking fuel tank?” [The Conservative Woman UK – 5/23/2024]

Meanwhile, as sales of EVs collapse, people seem to be realising that it is ridiculous to buy a car with what is effectively an outrageously expensive shrinking fuel tank.

That’s enough for one day. Many hat tips are owed to those of you who have been sending me links and tips. Thank you.

[buck.throckmorton at protonmail dot com]

posted by Buck Throckmorton at 11:00 AM

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