New York Times/Sienna Poll Puts Trump Up by 4 Among Likely Voters, 6 Among Registered Voters

Is this still a "small" or "slight" lead, or is this more substantial?

Note that we are now at an inversion of the past situation -- a likely voter screen is now more Democratic, and an "all voters" screen favors Trump. Trump has attracted a lot of non-voters and low-propensity voters.

The trouble is... they are low-propensity voters.

President Biden continues to confront deeper doubts among Democrats than former President Donald J. Trump faces among Republicans -- even after Mr. Trump was convicted of 34 felony charges last month, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College.

The national survey on the eve of the first presidential debate shows that voters have broad distaste for both candidates but that Mr. Trump has so far better consolidated the support of his own party. Only 72 percent of voters who said they cast a ballot for Mr. Biden four years ago say they approve of the job he is doing as president. And voters overall say they now trust Mr. Trump more on the issues that matter most to them.

In the first Times/Siena poll since the former president's trial ended with a guilty verdict on May 30, more than two-thirds of voters said the outcome of his Manhattan criminal case made no difference to their vote. Roughly 90 percent of Republicans still view Mr. Trump favorably.

And among the relatively small slice who said the conviction would make a difference in their vote, Republicans said the outcome would make them likelier to support him than oppose him by a roughly 4-to-1 margin.

...

The head-to-head results of the survey show Mr. Trump with his biggest lead in a national Times/Siena poll among likely voters, 48 percent to 44 percent, a 3 percentage point margin when calculated before the figures are rounded. Mr. Trump's lead with registered voters was an even larger 6 percentage points.

Those results are notably different than the new national polling average released by The New York Times this week, which shows Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden by about one percentage point. It is difficult to determine whether such results, known in the polling industry as an outlier, reflect a change in public opinion not yet seen by other pollsters or are produced by random error.

It's not an outlier. Quinippiac just found Trump ahead by 4 as well.

In this case, the size of Mr. Trump's lead in the poll may be related to the fact that Republicans were significantly likelier to answer their phones and take the survey than Democrats or independents, a new development in Times/Siena polling this cycle. One potential explanation was that Mr. Trump's base is more motivated to participate in the poll after his conviction.

LOL, our own poll is skewed! Skewed polls! Skewed polls!

The candidates were neck-and-neck in the Times/Siena survey in April, with Mr. Trump holding a slight advantage -- 47 percent to 46 percent -- among likely voters.

Was that an "outlier" too?

It's not all good news. Trump's own pollster shows Trump losing four points of his lead, falling from +6 over Biden to now just +2.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 12:00 PM

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