AARP Poll: Trump Is Thumping Biden in Pennsylvania By Five Points

Interesting.

He's winning the Boomers. He's winning Gen X, aka "The New Greatest Generation," by 16. (Even though I'm not yet 29, I identify as a Gen Xer.)

He's winning all other age groups, including the very young, by a point.

Strom comments:

If Trump actually wins, Pennsylvania Biden's path to victory will be extraordinarily difficult to find. Arizona looks out of reach, as does Georgia. North Carolina could be a blowout, and even Nevada looks out of reach. That leaves Wisconsin and Michigan as competitive.

He also notes:

[I]f you look at the timing of the polls, a clear trend emerges. Trump does better each week. That likely means there is a trend. It's not proof of one, but it sure looks like one.

Regarding Nevada, Hot Air had a headline about a group called Inside Elections, who had been keeping Nevada as "leans Biden" for months despite, you know, Trump actually being head in Nevada, and not by just a couple of points, either. The Real Clear Politics average has Trump ahead by +4.5.

So Inside Elections finally decided to check the polls, and now rate Nevada as... A Toss-Up!

Biden currently trails in the six most important states, including Arizona (Trump +3.2), Georgia (Trump +5.9), Michigan (Trump +1.4), Nevada (Trump +5.1), Pennsylvania (Trump +1.8) and Wisconsin (Trump +2.7), according to the FiveThirtyEight averages through Tuesday afternoon. Biden won all of those states narrowly in 2020 but may not carry any of them in 2024, if current trends hold up.

Considering Republicans' struggle in presidential cycles, Nevada was the only state not rated as a Toss-up by Inside Elections up to this point. While the GOP won big races in 2022 and 2014, former Sen. Dean Heller was the last Republican to win statewide in Nevada in a presidential cycle, and that was back in 2012. The GOP presidential nominee hasn't won the Silver State since President George W. Bush's reelection in 2004.

But Biden won Nevada by just 2.4 points against an unpopular incumbent and is at significant risk of losing Nevada in November as the unpopular incumbent himself. Considering the current president's struggle generally and with Hispanic voters specifically, Biden doesn't have a distinguishable advantage in Nevada.

Inside Elections is therefore changing Nevada's rating in the presidential race from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up.

538 has it at Trump +5.1, and RCP has it at Trump +4.5. So it's a Toss Up.

As the Black Knight said, "All right, we'll call it a draw."

LOL. Cope and seethe, cope and seethe.

In the below chart, we can see that Biden has lost ground with every single group save two. The chart is actually wrong in a couple of places, and claims, for example, Biden's lead climbed by +13 with 30-49 year olds when actually Trump gained +13. Biden still has a small lead (allegedly), but Trump reduced that lead to nothing.

Similarly they wrongly claim that Biden gained +7 with Hispanics. No. Looking at their own information, Biden had led with Hispanics by +14 and is now down to +7. So Trump gained +7 with Hispanics.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 04:15 PM

| Access Comments