"Trump Is Going to Win:" Swing Staters Prefer Trump

A poll from Kaplan Strategies puts Trump up over Biden by 15 points in Michigan.

Six months ahead of the November election, former President Donald Trump is leading Democrat incumbent Joe Biden by a whopping 15 points in Michigan, a key swing state. According to a Kaplan Strategies survey, the former president polled 51 percent to 36 percent in the battleground state. The margin of error for the survey was plus/minus 3.5 percentage points.

Is this a sign of something? Nah. It's an outlier. No other poll shows such a blow-out race. Every other poll has it close in Michigan.

Other polls have also shown varying results for Michigan. An Emerson College/The Hill poll released earlier this week indicated Biden trailing Trump marginally in Michigan (44 percent to 45 percent), while a Bloomberg News and Morning Consult poll suggested Biden ahead of Trump (47 percent to 45 percent).

Of course, to be close in Michigan is a coup for a Republican...

Also, it's worth pointing out that outlier polls exist. When Marist or MSNBC trumpets a poll showing Biden with a narrow lead in national polling, remember, this Kaplan poll has Trump up by 15 points. There is no #BelieveAllPolls movement. Some are just wrong.

The recent polling news for Trump is mostly good. The new Bloomberg poll has Trump ahead, everywhere.

What do you mean, "everywhere"?

EV-ER-Y-WHER-UH!

Political Polls @Politics_Polls

.@MorningConsult / Bloomberg News Poll:

NEVADA
Trump 51% (+8 )
Biden 43%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 48% (+4)
Biden 44%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 51% (+10)
Biden 41%
.
ARIZONA
Trump 49% (+7)
Biden 42%
.
GEORGIA
Trump 49% (+6)
Biden 43%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%
.
MICHIGAN
Biden 47% (+2)
Trump 45%

4,969 RV, 4/8-15

That's not the only poll showing Trump ahead -- the Emerson poll has him winning in all seven swing states, too.

And I repeat: Trump always gets more votes than his polls suggest. There are a lot of shy -- or browbeaten -- Trump voters who won't tell pollsters they're voting for the Bad Orange Man.

The latest Emerson College/The Hill poll reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over President Joe Biden in all seven key swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Key Details:

Trump leads Biden by four points in Arizona, three points in Georgia, one point in Michigan, one point in Nevada, five points in North Carolina, and two points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Independent voters favor Trump over Biden in five of the seven states, with Biden leading among independents in Georgia and Wisconsin.

Emerson College/The Hill also included polling of key Senate races in Arizona and Pennsylvania, with Republican candidates Kari Lake and David McCormick steadily gaining over their Democratic opponents in their respective states.

A CBS/YouGov poll finds that Trump leads Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and is just behind Biden in Michiganistan. Trump leads -- barely -- in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a single point in both states, 50-49. He is barely behind Biden, 51-49, in Michiganistan.

This poll has a lot of bad news for Biden. Although abortion gives Biden a lift, he's behind on the issue of the economy, and the increasingly-salient question of whether he or Biden had a successful presidency.

Voters rating the current economy vs. the economy as they remembered it under the Bad Orange Man:

In 2020, voters said that Biden "understood voters like us." Now that has flipped and Trump has the edge on the issue:

In Pennsylvania, near-majorities say they'd be better off financially under Trump, and worse off financially under Brandon:

This is another poll that finds that Trump does better when RFKJr. is not named as an option -- in other words, Kennedy is pulling more from Trump than Biden.

In Michigan, with the presence of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. the net gap between Mr. Biden and Trump is the same, but Kennedy looks like he's drawing more interest from the kinds of voters backing Trump than backing Mr. Biden.

Most of those picking Kennedy in a four-way ballot test backed Trump initially in a two-way race with Mr. Biden, including leaners.

This is a problem for Trump. Trump's core voters are a mix of conservatives and old-school blue-collar Kennedy-era disaffected Democrats. With an actual Kennedy in a race, some of those voters defect.

Sad:

"Pause."

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 03:56 PM

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