Vamos Brandon: Hispanics Favor Trump 43%-31% Over Biden, With RFKJr. Drawing Another 14%

Politico: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. may doom Joe Biden.

Well obviously. But they mean specifically that RFKJr. pulls a lot of Hispanic votes from Biden, and he's likely to be on the ballot in Hispanic-heavy swing-states like Arizona and Nevada.

To date, Kennedy is officially on the November ballot in just one state: Utah. But his campaign and an allied super PAC, American Values 2024, announced in the last month they have collected more than enough signatures to make the ballot in the critical Southwestern battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada, where roughly one in five voters are Latino.

Those signatures are still subject to challenge, but if Kennedy does appear on the ballot, it could create dire complications for the Biden campaign. Latino Democrats are now taking the threat of Kennedy's campaign deadly seriously after national and state leaders were briefed on a previously unreported poll in mid-February by Democratic group Equis Research, which showed Kennedy performing surprisingly well among Latino voters in a dozen battleground states, effectively splintering Biden's Hispanic coalition from 2020, when he garnered 59 percent Hispanic support.

Kennedy's popularity appears to be a function of name recognition and a general lack of enthusiasm for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, not to mention voters brushing their views onto the somewhat empty canvas of his candidacy. The poll of 2,010 registered Latino voters found Kennedy winning one in five young Latino voters, and also reported him capturing a sizable 17 percent Latino support in Arizona and an even more robust 21 percent in Nevada-- the highest number among the battleground states polled. The drag on Biden's Latino support was so great in the survey that Trump was winning among Hispanics overall in 12 battleground states, 41 percent to Biden's 34 percent.

If those numbers held in November, it would represent a seismic break in the Democratic coalition and a remaking of the electoral map, leading Democrats to likely lose Nevada and Arizona. In the wake of Trump's 2020 gains with Hispanics from South Florida to the Rio Grande Valley in south Texas, and even in parts of New Jersey and California, Democrats could still rest easy because the entire Southwest held. But if Nevada and Arizona fall to Trump as a result of erosion in the Latino vote, it would mean Biden is likely suffering similar losses across the country, presaging an election loss.

Rasmussen Reports finds Hispanic support for RFKJr. at 14%.

But the bigger problem for Biden is that Hispanic support for Trump is at 43%.

Rasmussen's head pollster discusses the death of the "Emerging Democratic Majority" -- an idea premised on an ever-increasing Hispanic population, all voting Democrat at about a 65% level. He also points out that Trump's national lead has expanded to +8 with all voters.

Rasmussen routinely shows better numbers for Trump than the Gaslight Media polls do.

That doesn't mean they're wrong, though.

Not popular with hispanics:

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 06:20 PM

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