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THE MORNING RANT: “Expectation Smashing” Retail Sales Are Trailing Actual Inflation

Inflation is still out of control and consumers are getting squeezed by their decreasing purchasing power. Meanwhile, the regime media is trying hard to spin this economic crisis, but unlike political propaganda, the media is unable to convince consumers that inflation is not a problem, because their empty bank accounts tell them otherwise.

“Retail sales smash expectations in September with US consumer slowdown nowhere in sight” [Yahoo – 10/17/2023]

September retail sales grew from the prior month, reflecting continued resilience in the American consumer despite predictions of a slowdown.

My household’s monthly grocery bill continues to steadily increase, despite the grocery list containing a pretty consistent basket of goods. We are spending more but not bringing home any more groceries. I am blessed that inflation has not forced us to cut back what we buy, but that hardly seems like an “expectation smashing” spending spree.

This article points out that several categories of retailers are not seeing any revenue growth at all, including clothing stores, electronics and appliance retailers, and sporting goods stores. In other words, these dry goods retailers are seeing declining unit sales as consumers are forced to redirect their decreasing purchasing power toward food, housing, and utilities.

Sales excluding auto and gas increased 0.6%, above estimates for a 0.1% increase compiled by Bloomberg.

That 0.6% monthly increase in spending annualizes to a 7.2% increase in spending over one year. As we’ve discussed often, the government’s published inflation figures are completely fraudulent, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting that as of September the annual inflation rate is just 3.7%, down from 4.0% in May 2023.

John Williams’ website (shadowstats.com) tracks inflation using the same measurements used in the Carter era. The chart below is updated through May 2023, showing the official 4% inflation as reported by the US government (red line) versus inflation if calculated the same way it was calculated in 1980 (blue line.) Actual inflation is more than 12%, which is 3 times the official bogus government figure.

Therefore, the ”expectation smashing” consumer spending that the media is reporting is not even keeping up with actual inflation, which means that consumers are bringing home less in the way of retail goods, despite the increased dollar amount they are spending.

This tweet below is not a parody. Nobel Prize winning propagandist economist Paul Krugman actually stated that excluding food, energy and shelter, “The war on inflation is over. We won, at very little cost.”

Thanks, Mr. Krugman, that’s very helpful. While inflation may be out of control on food, energy, and shelter, those are unnecessary discretionary expenditures. If people will just forego extravagances such as feeding their families and putting a roof over their children’s heads, they’ll do just fine in Biden’s economy.

The Babylon Bee actually predicted Krugman’s defense of Biden-era inflation:

Much of the political left struggles to understand The Babylon Bee’s satire. I used to think it was because leftists are humorless partisans, but to be fair, it can be confusing, because the Bee’s ridiculous headlines keep turning out to be prophecies that come true.

In the ”DOOM!” spirit of coblogger emeritus Monty, let’s see what other economic headlines could use a little “perfume on a pig” treatment from Biden administration apologists.

“U.S. credit card debt reaches all time high, exceeds $1 trillion” [Bank Rate – 8/09/2023]

“Auto Loan Delinquencies Are on the Rise” [Motley Fool – 9/20/2023]

“Credit card and car loan defaults hit 10-year high as inflation squeezes families” [NY Post – 9/04/2023]

“Car Repossessions Are On The Rise” [Yahoo – 07/07/2023]

“401(k) hardship withdrawals are on the rise. They’re ‘the worst way’ to tap funds, expert says” [CNBC – 8/17/2023]

A rational person would look at the distressing economic trends and not only be concerned about the implications for our economy, but also be saddened for those who are unable to afford the necessities of life.

A partisan could still be excused for wanting to believe that things have bottomed out and improvement is imminent.

But it takes a Nobel Prize winning genius, such as former Enron adviser Paul Krugman, to look at all this suffering and proclaim, “We won, at very little cost.”

We did not win. Inflation is devastating to the most economically vulnerable, and those who are in that category are hurting terribly.

[buck.throckmorton at protonmail dot com]