Leaked Documents Reveal US Forecast That Ukraine's Counteroffensive Will Likely Fail;
NSC Spokesman John Kirby Demands Media Not Publish Leaks Which Are Damaging to Biden's Lies About the War Going Great

Russian forces are "on the brink" of capturing the key defensive city of Bakhmut. Bakhmut is an important part of the Ukrainian defensive line, so losing this city would be very, very bad for Ukraine. Nevermind all the troops they have already lost, and would lose if the city falls.

Russian forces have "regained some momentum" and advanced towards the center of Bakhmut, after months of clashes for control of the embattled eastern Ukrainian city, according to a new intelligence update.

Moscow's advance in and around the city "had largely stalled" since late March, the British defense ministry said on Friday.

Bakhmut has endured months of heavy fighting between Kyiv's and Moscow's forces, with both sides committed to controlling the decimated settlement. Battles in Bakhmut have racked up heavy casualty counts on both sides, with U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, calling the battle for the city a "slaughter-fest" for Russian forces.

Russian military and mercenary forces have likely been joined by airborne troops, the British defense ministry said in a post to Twitter, adding that a key supply route for Ukraine to the west of Bakhmut is "likely severely threatened." They have likely reached the town center, controlling the west bank of the Bakhmutka River that runs through the settlement, the ministry wrote.

Scott Ritter is a pedophile and always takes the side of whatever country the US is in a cold or hot war with, so take his analysis with a grain of salt, but he told Kim Iverson that Bakhmut is about to fall, and that this will quickly lead to the end of the war, as Ukraine will have no choice but to sue for peace on terms favorable to Putin.

Now leaked documents show that the real assessment of the US is that Ukraine will likely fail in its coming counteroffensive to retake ground lost to Russia, while the Biden junta lies to the public about how the war is going.

That treasure trove of leaked classified documents is still spilling secrets, but perhaps the most consequential revelation is the U.S. government's grim assessment of the prospects for the Ukrainian spring offensive. President Biden's rhetoric regarding Ukrainian resistance to the invasion increasingly appears to be wildly overoptimistic happy talk, designed to assure Americans that he's managing the NATO coalition just fine, the military aid to Kyiv is arriving in a timely fashion, and Russia really is diplomatically and economically isolated.

A Grim Ukraine Assessment

President Joe Biden, speaking in Kyiv alongside Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, February 20: "This is the largest land war in Europe in three quarters of a century, and you're succeeding against all and every expectation, except your own. We have every confidence that you're going to continue to prevail."

But apparently, the U.S. government does not have every confidence that Ukraine is going to prevail. Here is the actual assessment of U.S. intelligence, according to the Washington Post this morning:

Ukraine's challenges in massing troops, ammunition and equipment could cause its military to fall "well short" of Kyiv's original goals for an anticipated counteroffensive aimed at retaking Russian-occupied areas this spring, according to U.S. intelligence assessments contained in a growing leak of classified documents revealing Washington's misgivings about the state of the war.

Labeled "top secret," the bleak assessment from early February warns of significant "force generation and sustainment shortfalls," and the likelihood that such an operation will result in only "modest territorial gains." It's a marked departure from the Biden administration's public statements about the vitality of Ukraine's military and is likely to embolden critics who feel the United States and NATO should do more to push for a negotiated settlement to the conflict.

The document adds that, "Enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive."

As I said yesterday, this is bad. It is bad that this assessment leaked; it is bad that this assessment of Ukraine's abilities in the spring offensive are so modest or grim; it is bad that apparently lots of foreign-policy experts have doubts about the administration's approach but are afraid to say so publicly; and it is bad that Biden's public assessment of the war in Ukraine is the same rosy-eyed, unrealistic optimism that characterized his assessment of Afghanistan, inflation, migrants crossing the border, and the Chinese spy balloon. The president is always telling us that things are going great and that we have nothing to worry about, and a little later, we learn that the truth is the opposite.

Meanwhile, Egypt is going around Biden's back to sell missiles to Russia.

President Biden likes to boast that "nobody" f-words with him. Well, apparently the Egyptians are willing to mess around, and do not fear what they will find out. Keep in mind, the U.S. usually provides Egypt with $1.3 billion in military aid each year and a separate $174 million or so in foreign aid.

Wait, there's more. The Associated Press finds documents indicating the government of the United Arab Emirates is building a closer relationship with the Russian FSB:

U.S. spies caught Russian intelligence officers boasting that they had convinced the oil-rich United Arab Emirates "to work together against US and UK intelligence agencies," according to a purported American document posted online as part of a major U.S. intelligence breach.

U.S. officials declined to comment on the document, which bore known top-secret markings and was viewed by The Associated Press. The Emirati government on Monday dismissed any accusation that the UAE had deepened ties with Russian intelligence as "categorically false."

But the U.S. has had growing concerns that the UAE was allowing Russia and Russians to thwart sanctions imposed over the invasion of Ukraine.

The leaked documents also report that the US is now keeping its drones far away from the battlefield -- 50 miles away from the Crimean coast.

I guess Russia's downing of a US drone had the desired effect.

Jim Geraghty, a NeverTrumper, concludes:

The administration is not playing it straight with the American public when it comes to Ukraine. An inability to see the situation clearly and communicate the situation without any sugarcoating is a formula for long-term problems.

Well you know, Trump said "pussy" and that's the worst thing.

I'm just glad that America is back under Biden, baby! That's what we were promised, and that is certainly what NeverTrump has delivered.

Meanwhile, John Kirby gives the propagandists their orders: Don't report on the leaked documents.

Or else.

That's his answer to questions about why the documents contradict his bullshit happy talk lies about the war: Don't talk about the documents.

And I bet you they'll obey.

posted by Ace at 03:30 PM

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