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UK Prime Minister Liz Truss Announces Resignation After 44 Days; Shortest Serving PM In History | Main | Joe Biden Gaffes and Tells Fetterman's Wife That She'll Be a Welcome Addition to the Senate as a New Poll Shows a Tie;
Mastriano Closes In On Shapiro for Governor
October 20, 2022

PANIC STATIONS: Monmouth Poll Puts GOP Up by SIX POINTS Nationally

Before getting to the Monmouth Poll, just a quick note that the CNBC poll also puts the GOP up on the national congressional generic ballot, by two points.

As usual, any lead for the GOP here is a big lead, because Democrat voters are crammed into safe Democrat districts and less well represented in competitive swing districts. A small GOP lead nationally means a big GOP lead in competitive districts.

On the question of which party would do better on each issue, the GOP has double-digit leads heading into Election Day:

* Inflation: GOP 42%, Dems 27%
* Taxes: 40/29
* Deficit: 36/25
* Job creation: 43/33

Democrats only win on two issues asked in the survey -- looking out for the middle class (42/38, more or less a tie) and the cost of healthcare (44/28).

Is the GOP really only two points ahead? Given that this poll claim that Biden has a 46% approval rate, it's doubtful.

Does anyone really think that Biden's at the popularity level that even a 46/50 job approval rating would indicate? His current RCP average is 43.1/54.1 and going in the other direction this week. In fact, CNBC's 46% ties for the highest in RCP's aggregate with a Fox poll two weeks ago, coming in a point above the latest Biden-friendly YouGov series iteration. NYT/Siena and Trafalgar put it at 39% while Reuters has it at 40%, while CNBC's 50% disapproval rating is the lowest in RCP's current aggregation.

This is another skewed poll.

The poll that has the left melting down is the Monmouth poll.

Recalling that any poll that shows a GOP national lead means a much bigger GOP lead in competitive districts -- what's it mean when a poll shows a substantial GOP national lead?


PPUSA
@PollProjectUSA


POLL: @MonmouthPoll

2022 Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans 50% (+6)
Democrats 44%
Undecided 1%

756 RV | 10/13-10/17
RV Sample: D29/I45/R26 (D+3)

Poll here.

Note that their report shows the GOP up 49-45, only a four point lead. But that's a sample of "all adults." The sample of registered voters -- and it's kind of important you be registered to vote, if your intention in an election is to count -- shows a six point lead.

Monmouth seems to be trying to hide their own poll result, but others, including leftwing poll analyst 538, aren't falling for the okey-doke.

Here are how the public ranks the importance of the issues, now vs. last month. Note that for all Republican issues, importance has increased, and for all Democrat issues, importance has declined.

issuepriorities.jpg

Other things for Strippers (and what's wrong with giving gifts to strippers?):


Qunnippiac: Zeldin within four of the Masked Dilettante Kathy Hochul.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday showed Hochul leading her Republican challenger by a mere 4%.

"In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive," Quinnipiac University polling analyst Mary Snow said. "Democrats have cruised to victory in gubernatorial races since 2006, but Governor Hochul's narrow edge puts Republican Lee Zeldin well within striking distance of her."

Even more shocking, the Democrat is leading New York City by 22%, with Zeldin earning an estimated 37% of likely NYC voters -- an extremely big grab for a Republican in the deep-blue city.

"WOW. A new Quinnipiac Poll finds [Lee Zeldin] way over a key 30% threshold in NYC -- widely seen as key to a GOP candidate winning statewide in supposedly super blue NYC," the New York Post's Zach Williams reported Tuesday.

In Wisconsin, the precriminations have begun: Democrats are already "finger-pointing" about who's to blame for Mandela Barnes' upcoming loss to Ron Johnson.

Reports... CNN.

Tom Nelson can hardly believe it.

In just a matter of two months, Democrats went from expecting to knock off the unpopular GOP incumbent, US Sen. Ron Johnson, to seeing their party's nominee, Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, scrambling to catch up.

Already, the finger pointing has begun.

"The national party did him a grave disservice by not closing the gap, by not being a stopgap measure in August and September to hit Johnson hard on good, effective negative ads, at the same time building up Mandela," Nelson, a local county executive from central Wisconsin and former Senate Democratic candidate, told CNN. "The national party has totally failed us, and so it's gonna come down to Wisconsin Democrats."

Of possibly seeing Johnson, 67, win a third Senate race, Nelson said, "People are just hitting their heads against the wall. How do we let this happen?"

Over the summer, Barnes' top Democratic opponents dropped out, clearing the way for him to win the primary and fully shift to attacking Johnson. Yet Barnes' slim lead collapsed in September, when Republicans spent nearly $6 million more than Democrats on the air slamming Barnes primarily on crime. In August, a Marquette Law School poll of likely voters showed Barnes leading Johnson 52-45. By early October, those numbers reversed.

What's happening in Wisconsin resembles Democratic struggles across the country. They've seen their leads evaporate in key House and Senate races as outside money floods in to hammer Democrats over crime and inflation, while they've tried to rail against Republicans over their opposition to abortion rights. In several key battleground states -- Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida -- GOP candidates and groups spent roughly $25 million more than their Democratic counterparts on air in September alone, according to data from AdImpact, which tracks ad spending.

In states like Wisconsin, the outside money has forced Barnes to go on defense, and air several ads accusing Johnson of lying in the attack ads.

Many of his supporters believe that is not enough.

"Oh, I'm terrified," said Mary Hildebrand, a voter here in this small northern Wisconsin town.

Your fear fills my penis with warmth and musky steel.








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