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September 23, 2022

"100% Mobilization:" Russia is Drafting 300,000 It Admits -- Or Possibly 1,000,000 It Won't Admit -- To Rescue Its Failing Position in Ukraine

One of the advantages Ukraine has had in its war with Russia is that Russia thought the war would be easy. Russia won't even refer to it as a war -- they call it a "military exercise." I believe you can be arrested if you refer to it a "war" publicly.

They did not draft civilians or recall veterans to increase military strength. They went to war with the troops they had. 1, because they thought it would be easy, 2, because they did not want to make the public think it would be anything other than easy, and 3, because they did not want to stoke public resistance by drafting citizens into the army to fight the war.

I mean, the military exercise.

Ukraine has benefited from Russia's continued resistance to admitting it's losing the, uh, military exercise in Ukraine, and its refusal to get serious about it and mobilize for a, uh, larger military exercise.

But Ukraine's luck on that score just ran out -- Russia now is mobilizing for a genuine, serious military exercise.

They're trying to avoid stirring up resentment about the draft by native Russians by... selectively drafting non-Russian ethnics from the provinces.

Summons delivered to eligible men at midnight. Schoolteachers pressed into handing out draft notices. Men given an hour to pack their things and appear at draft centres. Women sobbing as they sent their husbands and sons off to fight in Russia's war in Ukraine.

The first full day of Russia's first mobilisation since the second world war produced emotional showdowns at draft centres and even signs of protest, while it appears Russia could be considering far more than the 300,000 new conscripts claimed by the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu.

One woman in a small village in the Zakamensky region of Buryatia, in eastern Siberia, said she first felt something was amiss when the dogs began barking about midnight.

In a community of 450 people, the village head was walking from house to house, seeking to hand out more than 20 draft notices. As men gathered before departing the next morning, she said, some drank vodka, while others hugged and told each other to stay safe. Women cried and made the sign of the cross over the small minibus that carried them away.

"It's not a partial mobilisation, it's a 100% mobilisation," said Alexandra Garmazhapova, president of the Free Buryatia Foundation, an activist group that has reported on the draft in the region. In the past day, she said, she and her colleagues had received and identified more than 3,000 reports of povestka, or draft papers, being delivered in Buryatia within just 24 hours of Vladimir Putin announcing the draft.

Despite assurances that Russia would be seeking men who had recently served in the army and had combat experience, activists pointed to a number of cases of men in their 50s receiving draft notices.

One woman said a 52-year-old relative had been delivered a povestka shortly before the president announced the draft the previous day.

Yanina Nimayeva, a journalist from Ulan-Ude in Buryatia, complained that her 38-year-old husband had received a draft notice despite never having served in the army.

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"'Don't you have five children?' they asked him. My husband laughed and said 'yes, five kids'. 'Well, OK, expect your draft papers,'" she said.

...

During a televised interview on Wednesday, Shoigu said Russia would be targeting 300,000 draftees, mainly those with recent military experience. But the actual number in an order signed by Putin is secret.

Some think it could be far higher. The independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta Europe reported that a source in the presidential administration said Russia was seeking to draft more than 1 million people into the army. That reporting has not been confirmed by other news outlets.

But video and anecdotal evidence from around Russia has shown large drafts taking place even in small towns, suggesting that the numbers could be far higher.

Many are in Russia's ethnic minority republics, reinforcing a sense that the country has been disproportionately relying on ethnic minorities to provide its main fighting force in Ukraine. Those regions have also suffered a disproportionate number of deaths and casualties from the war.

This is a gamble for Putin. He's now putting Russia at-risk, too. My history was always spotty and it's gotten spottier as I've closed in on age 29, but I seem to remember a war sparking a revolution and change of regime in Russia once before.

It didn't turn out well for the ruling junta, either.

And I don't know if this is just a question of manpower. Russian trucks and tanks and self-propelled artillery, I've read, have been unreliable and prone to many breakdowns.

Last night, Tucker reported that the Ukraine and Russia had reached a tentative agreement that Russia would pull back to the territory it already held, if Ukraine would agree to not join NATO.

But the Biden Administration blew up the deal, because they're insistent on regime change -- because they still believe the Russiagate Hoax that Hillary Clinton invented, and want to risk World War III to punish Russia for not rigging the election for Trump.

Is this why NeverTrump is so gung-ho on this war? Must be, right? They're Democrats. And the Democrats all think alike, with the same NPC programming: We must go to war with Russia to avenge Hillary Clinton's non-stolen election loss.

Meanwhile, Putin is threatening to use nuclear weapons, and Zelensky is demanding the US use its nuclear weapons against Putin.


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posted by Ace at 01:00 PM

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