Fresh Report on Slowing Jobs Creation Indicates That the Recession We're Definitely Not Already In May Be Becoming Even More Non-Recessionary

We can't be in a recession -- look at the jobs numbers!, they told us.

And now what? "We can't be in a recession, look at the strong demand for baby formula and unemployment checks!" Yes, I think that will be next.

Private payrolls grew by just 132,000 in August, ADP says in reworked jobs report

Companies sharply slowed the pace of hiring in August amid growing fears of an economic slowdown, according to payroll processing company ADP.

Fears of an economic slowdown?

The economy's contracted for six months and counting.

Those fears are no longer fears, they are facts.

Private payrolls grew by just 132,000 for the month, a deceleration from the 268,000 gain in July, the firm said in its monthly payroll report.

The Dow Jones estimate for the ADP count was 300,000.

"Our data suggests a shift toward a more conservative pace of hiring, possibly as companies try to decipher the economy's conflicting signals," said ADP's chief economist, Nela Richardson. "We could be at an inflection point, from super-charged job gains to something more normal."

August payroll numbers are notoriously volatile. ADP's release also comes at an uncertain time for a U.S. economy which saw negative growth for the first half of 2022 amid the highest inflation the nation has seen since the early 1980s.

Didn't we used to have a word to describe a situation of prolonged, six-months-or-more negative "growth"?

Via Ed Morrissey, who notes this rate of job creation is so low that it will not result in America regaining the jobs lost due to the covid shutdowns, when you factor in population growth. (That is, the working age population has grown by four million, and we're not even close to "saving or creating" the jobs the older working population had, nevermind producing four million new jobs for those four million new entrants.)

A report showed a slowing in the purchasing managers index, noted Nick Arama of Red State.

Via CNN:

The latest S&P Global preliminary flash composite purchasing managers index, or PMI, registered a level of 45 as of August 22, down from 47.7 in July.

The rate at which business activity slowed was the fastest recorded since May 2020 when the pandemic shutdowns first took hold, according to S&P Global. This marks five consecutive months that the activity index has fallen and the second consecutive month that it has been in contraction territory.

Levels above 50 indicate expansion, while levels below represent a contraction is occurring, according to S&P Global.

"The data is certainly pointing to a downturn at the moment," said Sian Jones, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Obviously, we have to wait and see how it progresses, but it's certainly going to be a challenging business environment going forward." [....]

Pointing to a downturn. But we're not in a downturn, right? The media is very careful about which "experts" they permit to appear in their propaganda sheets.

I'm sure a hundred analysts would say "Obviously we're in a recession," but CNN reached out for the Biden Fan they knew would only say that a record decline in purchasing "pointed to" a downturn.

posted by Ace at 05:00 PM

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