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November 02, 2020

Trump Campaign Manager Bill Stephien: Trump Is Ahead of His 2016 Pace in All of the Key Swing States

This is based on an analysis of votes actually cast, by party.

So there has been a lot of bluster, from pollsters and pundits, about what we should expect tomorrow.

President Trump has the momentum in this race and the math available to him to win on Election Day.

President Trump is ahead of where he was in 2016, by a very key measure.

It's the measure that actually matters. Votes cast, and votes left to be cast.

You've been seeing reports of Democrats being nervous, and well, they should be.


Let's start in Ohio, where Joe Biden is wasting a few hours today.

Weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +10, today it's D +0.6.

Going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5.

Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.

Pres. Trump rallied in North Carolina this morning.

Democrats jumped out to a D +32 advantage during AB only voting. Today it's D +5.8.

Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +9.7.

Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.


Pres. Trump and Biden are then heading to Pennsylvania.

Dems have banked A TON of high propensity voters. We have millions of voters left.

Pres. Trump's E Day margin needs to be significant and we project an Election Day votes cast margin of over a million for Pres. Trump.

Don Jr. is in AZ today to etch the state into our win column.

Weeks ago the makeup of the electorate was D +11.9, today it's D +1.2. Reminder: going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5.

Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 150k net votes.


What about Florida?

Democrats jumped out to a D +18.8 advantage during AB-only voting. Today it's D +1.

Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +1.4.

President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 500k net votes.

He added Wisconsin and even Nevada:

Pres. Trump will head to Kenosha later today.

In Wisconsin, weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +12.3 - today itís D +5.9.

Going into Election Day in '16, the gap was D +9.6.

Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 100k net votes.
Nevada?

Democrats jumped out to a D +27.3 advantage during AB only voting. Today it's D +5.

Flashback: going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +7.9.

President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 50k net votes.


Like 2016, Pres. Trump will end the day in Michigan.

Congrats: Democrats have banked their high propensity voters. We have nearly 2 million voters left.

Pres. Trump's E Day margin needs to be 350k - we project an Election Day votes cast margin of 400k+ for Pres. Trump.

Look, it's pretty simple - if the voters that we KNOW are still out there for Election Day show up ON Election Day, President Trump has four more years at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.


This map of North Carolina's ballots already cast shows the state entirely pink or red. That doesn't mean it's mostly Republican ballots; in fact, Democrats lead in ballots cast.

But they always do. North Carolina has more Democrats even though it's a reliable Republican state.

The map is pink and red in every county to indicate that in every county Republicans have a net gain in ballots cast over their performance in 2016. And Republicans won NC in 2016.

Same deal with this partisan analysis of ballots actually cast in Florida.

It could be, though, that Trump is performing as badly with Independents as the media claims.

But why would Democrat-leaning independents outperform Democrats?

The latest polls from Arizona look good:


Twitter censors this parody vid as "sensitive content," which means "It hurts Biden."

I dunno. I'm very nervous/borderline depressed.

I guess there's some hope out there, though.

The left has made it very clear that if they are given power in this election, we will never have an open election again. The real right will be censored, banned, and fired from their jobs, and they'll make conservatism de facto illegal.

I do know we all have to vote, whatever happens!

This may be our last stand.

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posted by Ace at 06:02 PM

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