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October 28, 2020

Is Florida Already Won For Trump?

Trump stopped most of his advertising for Trump, provoking the leftwing media and NeverTrumpers (but I repeat myself!) to proclaim he was just giving up.

Giving up -- or redeploying resources from a state he's already one to one he can win, like Minnesota? Update: Trump and his campaign spokesman say the Bloomberg story about Trump reducing his Florida ad buy is completely wrong and must be retracted.

This guy is tracking all the early votes in Florida, both by-mail and in person.

The Democrats have a 200,000 lead right now, though that's dropping by the minute.

Let's look at the "supervoters" who have not voted yet. These are the voters who have voted in four of the last four elections, and thus are a lock to vote in this election, but who haven't yet voted.

Democrats have 305649 "supervoters" left to vote.

And Republicans?

555,193. We have 250,000 more supervoters still expected to vote.

In North Carolina, Democrats have already banked 111% of their total 2016 vote.

But so have Republicans. And Republicans won last time. So Republicans are ahead now.

I already mentioned that Jon Ralston, a highly partisan Democrat "journalist," is worried for the Democrats in Nevada, as they're underperforming their 2016 vote.

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

Mollie Hemingway makes a good point: Why is Biden using one of his very few non-lid appearances to shore up Michigan, where he's supposedly up by (giggle) 12 points?

If he really believed that 12 point lead, why isn't he spending his time in Florida or North Carolina?

Below, a Florida poll watcher explains why he thinks Trump has likely won Florida. This is from two days ago, but fresher data only adds more support to his conclusion (that is, Republicans have continued to erase Democrats' early vote lead).

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posted by Ace at 05:40 PM

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