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October 13, 2020

This Election Is Going To Be (Gas)Lit!

Over the weekend, Jonah Goldberg got into a discussion with David Limbaugh. On Twitter, of course. The subject was polls and the coming election. Limbaugh was doubting the veracity of the current poll data as presented by the MSM, while Goldberg said the following:

I think it’s much more likely he’s trailing by double digits than it’s close to tied.

So I posed the following question to him. He didn't answer, of course, Goldberg is far to august an individual to deign to answer random questions from Twitter plebeians, but I think it's a good question:

Why? Serious question. Except for the polls, exactly what other metric makes you think that it's likely that Trump is down double digits? Voter enthusiasm? Rallies? Yard signs? Party registrations? Volunteers? Small donor donations? This is a serious question. I'm not discounting the polls, but if they didn't exist, what exactly would you point at and say "See? Biden's obviously up by 10 or more"? I've been thinking about this for a while, & I got nuthin'. You're the professional pundit, what am I missing?

So what say y'all? I know what the polls say (I also know how easy it is to manipulate polls to get the results you want, I took an entire class on the science of polling in '92 as part of my work on my poli-sci degree), but if polling didn't exist, what would Biden supporters be trumpeting to the skies about their candidate? As far as I can tell there's only 2 things: A series of polls that seem to suspiciously mirror the beliefs of the pundit class or a blind faith that there are enough Democrat assets in place to steal the election through fraud or intimidation. I don't see what else that a reasonable person could point to to say that Biden is likely to win. Do you?


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posted by WeirdDave at 12:07 PM

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