New Poll Pegs Biden Running Behind Hillary Clinton in Miami-Dade

Biden's up -- remember, this is Democrat stronghold Miami-Dade county, not the state -- by 17.

But canting runt Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade by a lot more, while losing the state.

That 17-point deficit is well outside the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error. But Trump doesn’t need to win Miami-Dade. He just needs to do better in the Democratic-leaning county to offset possible losses in other parts of Florida.

In 2016, he lost Miami-Dade to Hillary Clinton by 30 points -- about 290,000 votes -- but won the state by 1.2% of the total vote.

"If you're the Biden campaign, looking at these numbers, I think there's reason for pause," said Fernand Amandi, the Miami-based pollster and Democratic strategist behind the poll. "If Biden under-performs in what should be one of his strongest counties -- and is certainly the largest county for Democratic votes in the state of Florida -- it might imperil his chances of winning Florida unless there is a massive white voter exodus from Trump in other parts of the state."

Trump is also running even with Hispanics.

But the poll found the former vice president splitting Hispanic voters with Trump, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 46%. Those numbers -- based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error -- are driven by Trump's increased support among conservative leaning Cuban-Americans, who supported Trump over Biden in the poll by a crushing 38 points. Just eight years ago, those voters roughly split their votes between Republican nominee Mitt Romney and former President Barack Obama.

Wow: The GOP nominee went from splitting the Cuban vote in 2012 to now winning it by 38 points.

The latest Qunnipiac poll also shows Trump gaining with Hispanics, from 28% in 2016 to 36% now.

In 2008, Republican nominee John McCain received 31% of the Hispanic vote. Four years later, GOP candidate Mitt Romney, now a Utah senator, received 27% of the Hispanic vote after a campaign during which he proposed cracking down on illegal immigration.

What a couple of losers.

Despite Trump condemning illegal immigrants more stridently than Romney ever did and initiating construction of a southern border wall, the president’s campaign is predicting the president will receive 40% of the Hispanic vote on Nov. 3.

Biden had also -- very much supposedly -- been "leading" in Texas by five points, but Trump has now pulled ahead by 2, 48-46.

And yeah, I imagine the real numbers are better for Trump by at least 3-4 points.

posted by Ace at 12:00 PM

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