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September 02, 2020

Biden's Lead in Pennsylvania Shrinks to 1 to 3 Points

Biden's lead in Pennsylvania has shriveled itself down to one to three points, depending on whether you think this will be a high turnout or low turnout election.

From a Monmouth University poll press release:

Among all registered voters in Pennsylvania, the race for president stands at 49% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Another 2% support Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, less than 1% back the Green Party’s Howie Hawkins, and 4% are undecided. Voter intent includes 43% who say they are certain to vote for Biden (versus 44% who say they are not at all likely to support the Democrat) and 40% who are certain to support Trump (versus 47% who are not at all likely).

The contest tightens when different likely voter models are applied. A model based on a somewhat higher level of turnout than 2016 puts the race at 49% for Biden and 46% for Trump, while one reflecting lower turnout has it at 48% for Biden and 47% for Trump.

Sexton notes:

Just six weeks ago, Biden held a 13 point lead among registered voters which worked out to a 10 or 7 point lead among likely voters depending which turnout model you use. In other words this looks like a 6 point drop for Biden in 6 weeks. The margin of error on this poll is 4.9 percent. The shift in the numbers has come mostly from men who were pretty even split in the prior poll and now favor Trump heavily...

He also notes that Republicans have overcome the enthusiasm and optimism deficits they had six weeks ago, and now lead in both measures.

This poll also confirms that Biden is losing support with minorities:

Voters of color have become somewhat less certain of their choice. Biden maintains a sizable lead with this group (72% to 15% versus 76% to 16% in July), but a larger number are now undecided (9% now versus 3% in July).

And this is just absolutely special:

In Pennsylvania's six most competitive districts, the Republicans hold a ten point lead in the generic congressional ballot.

"The generic congresisonal ballot" is: "What party do you plan to vote for for Congress?," no candidate named. Most people don't really know their congressman and just vote for party.

The Democrats are racking up outsized leads in non- swing districts while losing in the actually competitive ones:

The Monmouth University Poll also posed a generic ballot test for the U.S. House of Representatives election, which shows 48% of registered voters currently supporting the Democratic candidate in their district and 45% backing the Republican. This result stood at a similar 49% to 45% in Monmouth’s July poll. Applying likely voter models to the current sample, high turnout puts the statewide vote choice at 48% Democrat and 46% Republican while low turnout has it at 48% Democrat and 47% Republican.

In 12 congressional districts where the winning margin for either party was greater than 15 points in 2018, the Democrats lead by 8 points (51% to 43%). In the six most competitive districts, though, the Republicans lead by 10 points (50% to 40%). In July, the Democrats held small leads in both the safe seats (49% to 46%) and the competitive ones (48% to 43%).

This seems to indicate that there's a big swing in swing districts away from the anarchy, looting, arson and murder Democrats are threatening if we don't let them win.


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posted by Ace at 07:08 PM

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