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A Jug Of Wine, A Loaf Of Bread - And ONT | Main | Mid-Morning Art Thread
April 10, 2020

The Morning Report - 4/10/20


Good morning, kids. The weekend is here, or so the calendar says. Another grim milestone of yet another day of America held hostage. Actually, it's a combination of two of Yogi Berra's famous Yogi-isms: "It's deja-vu all over again" and "50% of Chinese Coronavirus is 90% statistics." Obviously the last one is paraphrased, but it hits the nail on the head. For going on two months, we have relied on the statistical models of one individual, and tragically, the rest is history - literally:

...The mother of all modeling when it comes to COVID-19 is Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London. It was he who first said 500,000 people in England would die, and another 2.2 million in America unless drastic steps were taken. Then, when both countries panicked, he came out with a new, downgraded model (one that still overstates the reality). Ferguson was presented to the world as one of the world's foremost epidemiologists and modelers. Perhaps we should have learned more about him before accepting that claim. With help from Bill Steigerwald, Power Line has an expose that gives us more information about Ferguson.

It turns out that, in 2005, Ferguson had some predictions about the Bird Flu. He estimated 200,000,000 deaths worldwide. In fact, in the last 17 years, there've been 455 diagnosed Bird Flu deaths. But anyone is entitled to make one little 199,999,545-person error, right? Well, maybe. But what about two such errors?

Dr. Ferguson was equally off with his death projections for mad cow disease. He made big headlines in the United Kingdom by predicting that mad cow disease could kill between 50 and 50,000. Bill writes: "Millions of cows were slaughtered. But to be fair, his scientific 'model' was right. The death toll [is 178 to date]."

But wait! There's more. Ferguson also refuses to share his methodology with other scientists:

Several researchers have apparently asked to see Imperial's calculations, but Prof. Neil Ferguson, the man leading the team, has said that the computer code is 13 years old and thousands of lines of it "undocumented," making it hard for anyone to work with, let alone take it apart to identify potential errors. He has promised that it will be published in a week or so, but in the meantime reasonable people might wonder whether something made with 13-year-old, undocumented computer code should be used to justify shutting down the economy.

Ferguson is the modern equivalent of the man standing on the street corner, screaming at passers-by, "The end is near." Neither is correct; both are insane. And yet this is the man who has shut down America's economy...

I like that part about Ferguson's refusing to share his methodology with other scientists. Not the scientific method but a method for sure, one that Michael Mann approves of.

Thing of it is, I don't necessarily blame Ferguson for this. He is yet another crackpot faculty lounge egghead who most likely has a political agenda and definitely has a megalomaniacal streak in him. If anyone had bothered to check this guy's history, which was evidently easy enough to do, they would have seen him for the Professor Irwin Corey that he is. But no one did.

No, I don't necessarily blame him; the fact that he has not been defrocked and booted is another matter. But Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx are quite another matter indeed. Now that we know for sure that Ferguson's model was more apt to prove a flat earth than to flatten the curve, Fauci and Birx continue to push the notion of keeping everyone locked down for extended periods to prevent a wave of illness and death that was and is never going to happen. As insidious and lethal as this particular strain of Asiatic plague is, the idea that social distancing and quarantines are what caused the models to be revised downward and slow the pace of infection and death is a myth. That's not to say that they did not prevent people from getting sick; naturally when sources of any contagion are not around to infect people, they won't come down with anything, be it a cold or the Chinese Lung AIDS. But there is now evidence to show that states that did not impose lockdowns are bending the curve down as much as those that did.

It is more than likely the case that the first infections occurred weeks or even months before the first one was reported. California for instance has such a low death rate because the population built up a herd immunity early and that quelled the spread of infection - just as that is the case every year with your garden variety influenza. But Drs. Fauci and Birx, as well as the Democrat-Media Complex will have none of it. They believe in science and technocracy to such an extent that they willingly toss aside all reason and ethics in order to protect a fellow true believer. Now throw in the political angle to this and it's cargo cult science in service to an all-powerful State. And the apostates will kneel before it and them.

The latest stats as of this morning are 469,121 cases, 17,820 deaths and 16,234 recovered in the USA, out of a total population of 320 million. There's also the matter of Dr. Birx herself confirming the counting of deaths due to the Chinese Lung Rot in people who were infected but died of other causes. That's not a conspiracy theory; it's data manipulation. And with Fauci now bringing Ferguson's pulled-out-of-his-ass fictional estimate of 2 million US deaths down to about 60,000 in just 10 days, we're looking at what will ultimately turn out to be a more lethal than usual flu season. And that assumes that the death toll even makes it that high. Maybe if we wait another 10 days, the estimate will go down to 30,000 - while the Dow Jones goes down to 10,000.

But still they persist in insisting we continue to stay locked down based on a model that is a complete fraud and ignoring the actual science of viral infection, even one that can be as nasty as this one yet is still not the extinction-level Andromeda strain that it's being pimped as. That leaves the ball in President Trump's court. For two months, we've watched helplessly as the Superman economy got a surprise kryptonite enema and fell from the top of the Daily Planet and splatter on the pavement. Trump and team continue, at least outwardly, to defer to the "experts" for when they will give the all clear to restart the economy. Fauci is now devolving into General Jack D. Ripper territory with purity of essence madness about how we should never be allowed to shake hands again, while evil Leftist bastards like Ezekiel Emanuel want a total shutdown for upwards of 18 months, just to be sure. That is, be sure the US economy is destroyed and the population screams for Democrat Party dictatorship.

Again, I don't want to ignore the fact that even a single person who suffers from this or Lord forbid dies of it is truly a tragedy, and one that the People's Republic of China is responsible for. But as nasty as this bug may be, it simply does not rise to the danger level that warrants ruining the lives of 320 million people and putting us on a very dangerous course politically. I know that the Democrat states for sure will not comply with it, but Trump needs to announce his recommendation that the lockdowns should be lifted, and except for those already sickened, the elderly or the chronically ill with compromised lungs and immune systems, and the social distancing ended.

Enough is enough.

NOTE: The opinions expressed in some links may or may not reflect my own. I include them because of their relevance to the discussion of a particular issue.

ALSO: The Morning Report is cross-posted at if you want to continue the conversation all day.

Follow us on Twitter: @CutJibNews

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